美国对拉美经济战略的调整及其影响  

The Reorientation of US Economic Strategies Towards Latin America and Its Implications

作　　者：谢慧敏 李春顶 邢泽蕾 Xie Huimin;Li Chunding;Xing Zelei

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2024年第3期25-50,142,143,共28页Journal of Latin American Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“重大公共卫生事件对我国全球价值链分工地位的影响机制及对策研究”(编号:20&ZD119)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：受美国经济增长疲软、新冠疫情冲击、地缘政治冲突以及中美大国竞争博奔等内外部叠加因素的影响,美国政府显著提高了对拉美的重视程度。本文全面梳理了美拉经贸关系的变化,系统回顾了自奥巴马政府以来,美国不同时期对拉美经济战略的调整及其动因,研判未来发展定位和趋势。通过构建一个大型数值一般均衡模型系统,对《美墨加协定》、“美洲经济繁荣伙伴关系”计划及美拉合作深化、中美拉合作与博奔关系调整三种情景的经济影响进行量化模拟分析。研究发现:美国与拉美间的贸易和投资关系呈非对称性,美国是主要拉美国家的最大贸易伙伴和最大投资来源国,拉美对美国的经贸依附性更强;尽管不同时期的美国政府均大幅度调整了对拉美的经济战略,但本质上依然是“门罗主义”,秉持“美国优先”理念,试图将拉美打造为经贸上排外并依赖美国的“后院”;整体上中美拉合作与博奔关系调整这一情景“损人”且“不利已”,对全球经济亦不利。Due to the overlapping influence of internal and external factors,such as weak economic growth in the United States,the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,geopolitical conflicts,and the competition game between the United States and China,the US government has paid ever more attention to Latin America.This article gives a comprehensive overview of the changes in the economic and trade relations between the United States and Latin America.It systematically reviews the US changes in the economic strategies of various ruling parties towards Latin America since the Obama administration,analyses the underlining motivations and future trends.The paper constructs a model of large-scale numerical general equilibrium that quantitatively simulates the economic impacts of the three scenarios:the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement;the Partnership for Economic Prosperity in the Americas and the resultant deepening of US-Latin American cooperation;and Sino-US-Latin American competition and cooperation.The study finds that there is an asymmetric trade and investment relationship between the US and Latin America:the US is both the largest trading partner and the largest source of investment for major Latin American countries,and the latter have deep economic dependence on the former.Although the US ruling parties of different periods have significantly adjusted their economic strategies towards Latin America,the essence is still that of"Monroeism"adhering to the"America First"philosophy,and trying to build Latin America into a"backyard"with ever stronger economic exclusivity and dependence on the United States.Overall,the competition between the United States and China in Latin America is detrimental to the world economy.

关 键 词：拉美经济 门罗主义 《美墨加协定》 美洲经济繁荣伙伴关系 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]