中等强国兴衰的经验启示:以阿根廷为案例  

Lessons from the Rise and Fall of Middle Powers:The Case of Argentina

作　　者：孙洪波[1] Sun Hongbo

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所发展与战略研究室

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2024年第3期98-117,145,共21页Journal of Latin American Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目(编号:23ZKJC110);中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”拉美区域国别研究项目(编号:DF2023ZD31);中国社会科学院-阿根廷科技部联合虚拟研究中心研究项目的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：阿根廷在世界上拥有独一无二的发展历程,“奥尔森命题”“布罗代尔钟罩”等分析视角对阿根廷的兴衰有着较强的解释力。阿根廷历史上的经济繁荣,主要是由耕地扩张、吸引欧洲移民以及对英国贸易依赖等要素驱动下的斯密型增长,但在进口替代工业化战略下,阿根廷未能实现向创新驱动的熊彼特型增长转型。从阿根廷独立后百年兴衰历史进程看,殖民遗产的路径依赖、地产寡头与农业立国、英帝国繁荣带来的斯密型增长、分利集团与食利型国家、进口替代工业化与资源租金枯竭、金本位及美元霸权与国家信用透支、农牧业集团与金融集团的结盟或对抗,大致可刻画出阿根廷中等强国兴衰的历史逻辑。本文将“阿根廷之谜”归结为中等强国兴衰规律的一个独特案例,将阿根廷的衰落现象界定为公共产品博奔困局。阿根廷中等强国兴衰的历史教训,从公共产品博奔角度看,主要体现在政治、金融、产业转型、外交等功能领域的公共产品供需严重失衡,未能充分满足国家崛起和发展转型对公共产品的客观需求。阿根廷曾作为新兴国家崛起,因国家能力有限,长期依赖霸权国在贸易、汇率、融资等功能领域提供的公共产品,但对霸权国依赖的敏感性、脆弱性严重制约了阿根廷的战略自主。结果在国际体系转型中,阿根廷一直面临着路径依赖、对外战略调整压力以及国内利益集团政治协调的多重困境。Argentina has a unique development history in the world,and the Olsen proposition has a strong explanatory framework for its rise and fall.Argentina's economic prosperity was mainly Smithsonian dynamic growth,driven by factors such as the expansion of arable land,the attraction of European immigrants,and the trade with Britain.However,the strategy of import substitution industrialisation failed to bring forth a transformation towards Schumpeterian innovation-driven growth.It became clear that the path dependency on the colonial legacy and the land rent system had major institutional implications in the historical process of Argentina's development.The mystery of Argentina's middle power development model has been a fascinating academic topic.This paper categorises the"mystery of Argentina"as a case of the rise and fall patterns of middle powers,defining Argentina's decline as a scenario of failure in the public goods game,which can roughly describe the historical logic of Argentina's economic evolution.From the perspective of the public goods game,the historical lessons of Argentina's rise and fall as a middle power were mainly reflected in the insufficient supply of public goods in functional areas such as politics,finance,industrial transformation and diplomacy.Argentina once emerged as a middle power,but its limited national capabilities meant that it had to rely for a long time on the public goods provided by hegemonic powers.However,its dependence on hegemonic powers severely limited Argentina's strategic autonomy during the various rounds of international transition.Argentina always faced difficulties in terms of path dependency,external strategic adjustment pressures,and domestic coordination among interest groups.Although Argentina's position as a middle power has declined,its development potential and its international influence should not be neglected.

关 键 词：中等强国 奥尔森命题 公共产品 资源租金 国际体系 制度悖论 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学]