监察法研究中的数理实证方法——以26篇监察法实证研究论文为样本的分析  

Mathematical and Empirical Methods in the Study of Supervisory Law——Using 26 Supervisory Law Articles Apply Mathematical and Empirical Methods as Samples

作　　者：朱福惠 ZHU Fuhui

机构地区：[1]山东大学法学院(威海) [2]山东大学国家治理研究院

出　　处：《法学评论》2024年第4期27-38,共12页Law Review

摘　　要：运用数理实证方法研究监察制度以及监察法实施的状况,是一种新的研究范式与知识生产方式,它具有数字表达、数据分析、研究结论的可重复性与可证伪性特征,有利于提升监察法学研究的质量。然而,受定性研究惯性思维的影响,数理实证研究存在选题偏好职务犯罪审查起诉与审判领域、研究主题宏大并具有明显的领域取向、数据解释与说明缺失的弊端,表明监察法数理实证尚处于“数字说话”阶段,属于以描述性表达为主的初步量化研究,不符合数理实证研究的思维方式与逻辑推理方法。在大数据与人工智能时代,有必要推动数理实证研究由“数字说话”向“数理思维”转化,为实现这一转化,应当确立以验证命题为起点、以变量赋值和数据分析为工具、以数理逻辑为推理依据的科学思维,实现从思辨解释向数理验证、从理论确信向理论证伪、从描述性表达向因果关系推断的发展。Employing mathematical and empirical methods to explore the supervisory system and the enforcement of supervisory laws inaugurates a novel paradigm for research and knowledge creation.This methodology is marked by its use of digital expressions,data analytics,and the characteristics of repeatability and falsifiability in drawing conclusions,significantly enhancing the caliber of scholarly inquiry within the realm of supervisory jurisprudence.Despite its advantages,the current trend in mathematical and empirical investigations,heavily influenced by the traditional leanings towards qualitative research,exhibits a noticeable bias towards topics encompassing the scrutiny,indictment,and adjudication of official misconduct.Such studies frequently undertake expansive themes with a distinct sectoral focus,while the interpretation and elucidation of data often remain underdeveloped.This scenario reveals that mathematical and empirical research in supervisory law predominantly resides in the"let the numbers speak"phase,characterized by an initial quantitative analysis that predominantly relies on descriptive representation.This approach falls short of the critical thinking and logical deduction inherent to mathematical and empirical studies.In the digital age,underscored by the advancements in big data and artificial intelligence,there is a pressing need to evolve from a mere numerical narrative towards a robust mathematical intellect.Achieving this transformation necessitates the adoption of a scientific mindset that prioritizes the validation of hypotheses,leverages variable assignment and data analytics as instrumental tools,and bases reasoning on mathematical logic.This evolution aims to transition from speculative interpretations to mathematical validations,from theoretical assertions to empirical refutations,and from descriptive portrayals to deductions of causality.

关 键 词：监察法 实证研究 验证命题 数理思维 因果关系 

分 类 号：D922.11[政治法律—宪法学与行政法学]