购买力平价汇总方法偏差研究  

Research on the Bias of the Purchasing Power Parity Aggregation Methods

作　　者：谢长 Xie Chang

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学统计学院经济统计系 [2]东北财经大学国民核算研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第6期18-29,共12页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“国民核算视角下生态系统服务核算的理论方法研究”(23BTJ027);国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产核算的理论、方法和中国实践研究”(20&ZD134);国家社会科学基金一般项目“国际经济比较中的质量调整理论与方法问题研究”(21BTJ065);东北财经大学省级以上科研平台能力提升专项项目“最新一轮全球国际比较项目(ICP)的技术方法、结果及其质量评估研究”(PT-Y202230)。

摘　　要：国际比较项目(ICP)数据质量评估是世界银行ICP技术咨询组关注的研究议题,从偏差视角研究购买力平价(PPP)汇总方法是重点研究方向之一。本文提出一个解释替代偏差的理论框架和两个定理,以探讨两类PPP汇总方法的偏差来源,并选择最短路径法(SP法)作为参照系,测度16种PPP汇总方法的偏差大小。同时,基于我国视角探讨亚太区域现行基尼–埃尔特托–科维斯–苏尔克(GEKS)法是否具备测度优势。研究发现,采用两个解释替代偏差的定理可以明确两类PPP汇总方法的偏差均源自替代偏差;链式方法的偏差低于平均价格法;相比最小距离法(MD)和可加的最小距离法(AMD),GEKS法并不具备测度优势,且该方法对我国而言也并非最优方法。本文研究为认识与测度PPP汇总方法偏差提供了新视角,对明确PPP汇总方法发展的方向、认识与改善ICP数据质量,以及世界银行和亚洲开发银行等国际组织选择更合理的PPP汇总方法提供了有益参考。Assessing the data quality of the International Comparison Program(ICP) is a research topic of interest to the World Bank's ICP Technical Advisory Group(TAG),and the study of Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) aggregation methods from the perspective of bias is one of key research directions.This paper proposes a theoretical framework and two theorems to explain the source of bias of two types of PPP aggregation methods,and chooses the shortest path method(SP) as a reference point to measure the bias of 16 PPP aggregation methods,and examines whether the currently used Gini-Elteto-Koves-Szulc(GEKS)method by the Asia-Pacific region has measure advantage from the perspective of China.It finds that the two theorems explaining the substitution bias can be used to clarify that the bias of both types of PPP aggregation methods is derived from the substitution bias.The bias of the chain methods is lower than that of the average price method.Compared with the minimum distance method(MD) and the additive minimum distance method(AMD),the GEKS method does not have measure advantage.The GEKS method chosen by the Asia-Pacific region is not optimal for China.This paper provides a new perspective for understanding and measuring the bias of PPP aggregation methods,and useful references for clarifying the right direction for the development of PPP aggregation methods,for international organizations,such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,to choose more reasonable PPP aggregation methods,and for correctly understanding and improving the quality of ICP data.

关 键 词：购买力平价 汇总方法 偏差 平均价格法 链式方法 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]