2025-2035年中国天然石墨资源需求预测  

Demand prediction of natural graphite resources in China from 2025 to 2035

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 赵汀[1,2] 刘胜前 马哲 江美辉 LIU Chao;ZHAO Ting;LIU Shengqian;MA Zhe;JIANG Meihui(MNR Key Laboratory of Metallogeney and Mineral Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国矿业》2024年第7期78-88,共11页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目“资源安全数字沙盘推演与会商决策系统建设”资助(编号:DD20230565);中国地质调查局地质调查项目“矿产资源国情调查数据集成与动态更新”资助(编号:DD20190613);中国地质调查局地质调查项目“全球矿产资源供需格局与调查布局研究”资助(编号:DD20230123);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”资助(编号:72088101);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”资助(编号:92162321);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”资助(编号:71991480);中国地质调查局地质调查项目“全球矿产资源储量动态评估”资助(编号:DD20230564)。

摘　　要：天然石墨广泛应用于传统工业和战略性新兴产业,是支撑我国高新技术发展的重要原材料。本文论述了我国天然石墨资源现状,并通过分析天然石墨主要消费部门需求,预测了未来耐火材料、铸造、铅笔、密封材料、摩擦材料、润滑吸附材料、锂电池负极材料等产业对天然石墨的需求。研究发现:我国天然石墨资源丰富,未来需求量将快速增长,预计到2025年、2030年、2035年我国天然石墨的需求量将分别达到109.0万t、188.3万t和278.3万t。全球天然石墨供给侧正在重塑,我国在全球天然石墨产业链供应链中的地位正在下降。我国石墨消费重心正从传统产业向战略性新兴产业转移,高端石墨产业发展面临机遇,为天然石墨产业发展带来新的增长点。通过健全天然石墨产业链和加强天然石墨资源保护力度,使我国从石墨资源大国发展成为石墨资源强国,支撑我国未来在新能源、关键装备密封润滑材料、高温材料等高端领域的石墨产品需求发展。Natural graphite is widely used in traditional industries and strategic emerging industries,and it is an important raw material supporting the development of high-tech in China.This paper discusses the current status of natural graphite resources in China,and predicts the future demand for natural graphite in industries such as refractory materials,casting,pencils,sealing materials,friction materials,lubrication and adsorption materials,and lithium battery negative electrode materials by analyzing the main sector demands for natural graphite consumption.The research has found that China has abundant natural graphite resources,and the demand of natural graphite will grow rapidly in the future.It is expected that the demand for natural graphite in China will reach 1.09 million tons,1.883 million tons,and 2.783 million tons respectively by 2025,2030,and 2035.The global graphite supply side is reshaping,and China’s position in the global graphite industrial and supply chains is declining.The shift of the focus of natural graphite consumption from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries is bringing new growth points to the development of the graphite industry.The graphite industry urgently needs transformation and upgrading,and the development of the high-end graphite industry is facing opportunities.By improving the graphite industry chain and strengthening the protection of graphite resources,efforts will be made to transform China from a graphite resource powerhouse to a graphite resource powerhouse,supporting China’s future development needs for graphite products in high-end fields such as new energy,key equipment sealing and lubrication materials,and high-temperature materials.

关 键 词：天然石墨 需求预测 负极材料 战略性新兴产业 转型升级 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程]