外部不确定性、国际友好城市与中国出口贸易  

External Uncertainty,International Friendship Cities and Chinese Export

作　　者：周建军 ZHOU Jianjun(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310058;Institute of State System Research,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310058)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学国家制度研究院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2024年第3期1-19,共19页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“产业链创新链融合推动民营经济高质量发展研究”(22JJD790074);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“贸易政策不确定性、需求冲击与企业出口行为和绩效”(LZ23G020001)。

摘　　要：本文从地方对外交往的视角寻找应对外部不确定性的方式,着重探讨国际友好城市在应对外部不确定性和减少出口损失中的作用。研究结果表明:国际友好城市能够显著缓解外部不确定性对中国出口贸易造成的负面冲击,发挥风险缓冲器和贸易稳定器的作用;国际友好城市建立的时间越长,数量越多,作用效果越明显,能够防范和缓解中长期风险对出口贸易的负面冲击。国际友好城市缓解外部不确定性对中国出口贸易负面冲击的机制主要包括:减少企业和产品的出口市场退出,稳定贸易联系;缓和双边贸易摩擦,减少摩擦损失;提高目的国民众对华好感度,增强对华信任感与认同感。此外,国际友好城市能够应对重大危机事件产生的外部不确定性,但对于周边特定国家而言,政策效果取决于两国国际友好城市交往的历史积淀。This study investigated approaches to dealing with external uncertainty through international exchanges,with an emphasis on the role of international friendship cities in dealing with external uncertainty and reducing export losses.The findings show that international friendship cities,acting as a risk buffer and trade stabilizer,cansubstantially alleviate the negative impacts of external uncertainty on China's exports.The more friendship cities and the longer the friendship cities have maintained,the more visible the effect,which can avoid and offset the negative impacts of medium and long-term risks on export.International friendship cities primarily mitigate the negative impacts in three ways:reducing exits of enterprises and products in export markets and maintaining trade relationships;easing trade frictions and reducing losses caused by frictions;and improving China's image in the target countries and establishing trust and recognition with China.Furthermore,international friendship cities can address the external uncertainty arising from major crisis events.However,the effectiveness of this policy for specific neighboring countries is dependent on the historical friendship between the friendship cities in the two countries.

关 键 词：外部不确定性 国际友好城市 中国出口贸易 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]