农民工返乡的家庭决策分析  

Analysis on Family Decision-making of Migrant Workers Return

作　　者：梅兴文[1] 冯譞 何振 毛磊[1] Mei Xingwen;Feng Xuan;He Zhen;Mao Lei

机构地区：[1]中国建设银行研修中心(研究院)

出　　处：《投资研究》2024年第6期109-126,共18页Review of Investment Studies

摘　　要：本文分析中国农民工返乡趋势及原因,采用四期中国老年社会追踪调查数据构建“阶段×农民工×老年人”三维数据集,实证考察影响农民工返乡决策的家庭因素和社会因素。研究结论显示:农民工返乡是家庭决策下的理性选择,家庭养老需求的增加使得农民工返乡的概率会有所提高。从社会养老保障体系建设思路来看,提高养老金待遇、提供养老服务可以在一定程度上代替子女对老年人的照料,更加明显地降低农民工返乡概率。This paper analyzes the trend and reasons for the return to hometown of migrant workers in China,uses data from four periods of the CLASS to construct a three-dimensional dataset of“stage×migrant worker×the elderly”,and empirically examines the family and social factors that affect the decision of migrant workers to return to their hometowns.The results show that the return of migrant workers to their hometowns is a rational choice under family decision-making processes,and the increase in the demand of family support for the elderly will increase the probability of migrant workers returning to their hometowns.From the perspective of improving the social security system,improving pension benefits and providing elderly care services can partially replace the care provided by offspring,thereby significantly reducing the probability of migrant workers returning to their hometowns.

关 键 词：农民工返乡 家庭决策 家庭行为 劳动力迁移 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2