2020年以来印度深化与中国台湾地区各层次关系的动向与前景  

Trends and Prospects of India’s Deepening Relations with the Taiwan Region,China at All Levels Since 2020

作　　者：孟维瞻 陈静[2] Meng Weizhan;Chen Jing(Institute for Advanced Social Science,Fudan University;Institute of Social and Cultural Studies,Macao University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会科学高等研究院 [2]澳门科技大学社会和文化研究所,中国澳门

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第2期127-142,共16页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(项目批准号:20CZZ040)。

摘　　要：2020年中印加勒万河谷边境冲突以来,印度与我国台湾地区之间的关系不再局限于贸易、文化、旅游等低敏感领域,而是在“官方”往来、供应链重组、情报共享和军事战略协调等高敏感层次持续深化与台当局交流互动。印度对台政策出现的新动向,引发了印度战略界的密集争论。在美国印太战略背景下,印度将会更加积极地参与“四方安全对话”涉台相关讨论,同时与中国台湾地区在半导体供应链等方面进行更加深入的合作。如果美国推动印太各方建立一个针对中国的、类似于北约的多边联盟,不排除印度对台政策出现更大幅度的转变。不过,鉴于提升与中国台湾地区各层次关系可能增加其卷入西太平洋冲突的风险,印度将努力维持其战略自主权,谨慎行事,以期在大国博弈过程中实现利益最大化。Since the conflict between India and China in Galwan River Valley in 2020,India's relationship with the Taiwan region,China is no longer limited to low-sensitive areas such as trade,culture and tourism,but has expanded to the deepening exchanges and interactions with Taiwan,China authorities at highly sensitive levels such as“official”exchanges,supply chain restructuring,intelligence sharing and military strategic coordination.This new trend in India's Taiwan policy has sparked intense debate among Indian strategists.In the context of the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy,India will actively participate in Taiwan-related discussions within the“Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”while deepening cooperation in areas such as semiconductor supply chains.If the U.S.pushes for a NATO-like multilateral alliance against China,a more drastic shift in India's policy towards the China Taiwan region cannot be ruled out.However,given that upgrading its relations with the China Taiwan region at all levels may increase the risk of its involvement in a conflict in the Western Pacific,India will strive to maintain its strategic autonomy and exercise caution to maximize its benefits in the great power rivalry.

关 键 词：印度政府 中国台湾当局 供应链重组 印太战略 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D835.1[政治法律—中外政治制度] D618