中国枣产区迁移及驱动力分析  

Analysis on Migration and Driving Forces of Chinese Jujube Production Areas

作　　者：李晓鹏 张永凯 李新岗[2] LI Xiao-peng;ZHANG Yong-kai;LI Xin-gang(College of Agriculture and Forestry Economics and Management,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;College of Forestry,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]西北农林科技大学林学院,陕西杨陵712100

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2024年第4期267-275,共9页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：2021年甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2021B-144);甘肃省科技计划项目(自然科学基金)(20JR5RA202);兰州财经大学科研项目(重点项目)(Lzufe2020B-005);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(23JRRA1783)。

摘　　要：枣是原产我国的特色经济林果,近20 a来,由于黄河中下游传统产区在成熟期遇雨裂果损失严重,产量和品质下降,我国枣栽培中心由传统产区向西北产区转移。随着“东枣西移”的不断推进,西北(陕甘宁新)已经成为我国枣产业主体,枣区转移也给我国枣产业发展带来新的机遇和诸多挑战。分析近20 a我国枣产量、栽培面积、土地产出率、生产集中度与产地集中度的变化特征,采用重心理论模型分析我国枣产区迁移演变规律,并运用面板数据分析我国枣产区变迁的主要驱动因素。结果表明,2001-2021年我国枣产地集中度系数呈上升趋势,2021年达到0.66。新疆枣区土地生产率、生产集中度系数、比较优势明显高于东部传统枣区。近20 a来,我国枣产量重心、栽培重心、土地生产率重心分别由东向西移动2257.37、1629.58和264.99 km,其重心移动轨迹向新疆、陕西、甘肃、宁夏枣产区等优生区和最佳优生区迁移,呈现明显的“东枣西移”趋势。成熟期降雨量、粮食供给水平、非农就业水平、农村居民纯收入等因素是驱动枣产区迁移的主要因素。该研究为我国枣产区优化区域布局、产业升级和高质量发展提供理论依据和指导。Jujube(Ziziphus jujuba)originated in China,is an important and unique non-commercial fruit tree species.In the past 20 years,due to the heavy losses caused by fruit cracking during the mature period in the traditional jujube production areas,resulting in the decrease of fruit output and quality.The cultivation center of Chinese jujube began to move from traditional jujube region(distributed around the middle and low reaches of the Yellow River)to northwestern China.With the advancement of the process of"the east-to-west migration of jujube",the Northwestern China,including Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,and Xinjiang has become the main part of jujube industry.The relocation of jujube area brings new opportunities to Chinese jujube industry and challenges to the industry of Northwest jujube production area.This article analyzed the changing characteristics of jujube production,planting area,land yield,production concentration,and place of origin concentration in China over the past 20 years.The migration and evolution patterns of Chinese jujube production areas were analyzed by the center of gravity theory model.And the main driving factors of the changes in Chinese jujube production areas was analyzed by panel data.The results showed that the concentration coefficient of jujube production areas in China increased from 2001 to 2021,the coefficient was up to 0.66 in 2021.The land productivity,jujube production concentration coefficient,and comparative advantage of Xinjiang jujube region were significantly higher than eastern traditional jujube area.In the past 20 years,center of gravity of jujube production,cultivation area,and jujube land productivity in China had moved from east to west by 2257.37,1629.58 and 264.99 km,respectively.Center of gravity movement trajectory moved to jujube eugenics areas and best eugenics areas in Xinjiang,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,showing the trend of"the east-to-west migration of jujube".The main factors driving the migration of jujube producing areas included mature rainfall,grain supply level,

关 键 词：中国枣 产区迁移 重心演变轨迹 集中度系数 驱动因素 

分 类 号：S791.266[农业科学—林木遗传育种]