宁波市热浪对寿命损失年影响的总效应及附加效应  

The Total and Added Effects of Heatwaves on Years of Life Lost in Ningbo City

作　　者：谷少华[1] 王爱红[1] 王永[1] 陆蓓蓓[1] 张丹丹[1] Gu Shaohua;Wang Aihong;Wang Yong(Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention(315010),Ningbo)

机构地区：[1]宁波市疾病预防控制中心,315010

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2024年第3期404-408,413,共6页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：宁波市自然科学基金项目(2019A610379);宁波市医学重点学科(2022-B18);宁波市市级医疗卫生品牌学科(PPXK2024-09)。

摘　　要：目的评估宁波市热浪对寿命损失年(YLL)影响的总效应及附加效应。方法收集2013—2019年宁波市死亡、人口、气象和空气质量监测资料,计算得到每日YLL率;根据日最高气温的百分位数和持续时间定义15种热浪类型,利用时间序列方法结合分布滞后非线性模型评估热浪对人群YLL率影响的总效应及附加效应,并按照性别和年龄(<65岁、≥65岁)进行分层分析。结果研究期间宁波市人群总YLL率为(19.74±3.14)人年/10万,热浪期的总YLL率均高于非热浪期(P<0.05)。随着热浪强度增加和持续时间延长,热浪的总效应均呈上升趋势。当热浪定义为日最高气温≥P97.5(37.2℃)且持续时间≥2d时,热浪累积10 d(Lag0-10 d)的总效应最大,总YLL率增加3.77(95%CI:2.25,5.29)人年/10万。热浪对男性和老年人影响的总效应高于女性和低年龄人群。仅部分热浪类型对男性和老年人YLL率影响的附加效应有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论热浪导致宁波市人群YLL率增加,且对男性和老年人的影响更大;热浪的附加效应可能仅在男性和老年人等敏感人群中出现。Objective To evaluate the total and added effects of heatwaves on years of life lost(YLL)in Ningbo city.Methods We obtained data of mortality,population,meteorological and air quality from 2013 to 2019 in Ningbo city,and calculated the daily YLL rate.We defined 15 types of heatwaves by combining percentiles of daily maximum temperature with duration.Time series analysis and distributed lag non-linear model were used to estimate the total and added effects of heatwaves on YLL rate,and stratified analyses were conducted by gender and age(<65 years,≥65 years).Results In the study period,the daily total YLL rate was(19.74±3.14)/105,which were higher in heatwave periods than in non-heatwave periods.The total effects of heatwave increased with higher temperature and longer duration.When heatwave was defined by daily maximum temperature≥95th(37.2℃)and the duration≥2 d,the total effect of heatwave in lag 0-10d was the greatest,with an increased total YLL rate of 3.77(95%CI:2.25,5.29)/105.The results of stratified analyses showed that heatwave had a larger effect on male and≥65 years old.The added effects of heatwave on male and≥65 years old were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion Heatwave could elevate the level of YLL rate,with greater impacts on male and elderly people.The added effects of heatwave may only occur in sensitive populations such as male and elderly people.

关 键 词：热浪 附加效应 寿命损失年 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]