集成灾害系统和D/I模型的岩溶区燃气管道致灾演化层次结构分析  

Hierarchical structure analysis on disaster evolution of gas pipeline in karst area integrating disaster system and D/I model

作　　者：李乔楚 张鹏[2] LI Qiaochu;ZHANG Peng(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第7期35-42,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD105)。

摘　　要：为进一步厘清岩溶区燃气管道多因素致灾演化的层次结构,基于灾害系统理论将其解构为孕灾环境、灾害因子、承灾体和灾情4大子系统,结合决策实验室分析法和解释结构模型分析多因素致灾演化的逻辑层次和因果递进关系,建立多级递阶结构模型并明确风险管控要点。研究结果表明:灾害系统风险因素分布于多阶层级,形成差异化作用路径和异质性影响效应;岩溶塌陷长度和宽度等表层直接因素对致灾演化造成直接影响,是风险管控第1要务;岩溶覆盖层特征、地形地貌等中层间接因素在灾害系统中起承上启下作用;构造条件、火源等深层根本因素位于多阶结构底层,对其管控能从本质上有效遏制灾害演化发展。研究结果可为岩溶地质隐患区燃气管道工程提供防灾减灾参考。In order to clarify the hierarchical structure of multi-factor disaster evolution of gas pipeline in karst area,based on the theory of disaster system,it was decomposed into four subsystems:disaster pregnant environment,disaster factor,disaster bearing body and disaster condition.By combining the DEMATEL method and ISM model,the logical hierarchy and causal progressive relationship of multi-factor disaster evolution were analyzed.Therefore,the multi-level hierarchical structure model was established,and the key points of risk management and control were clarified.The results show that the risk factors of disaster system are distributed in multiple levels,which form the differentiated action paths and heterogeneous influencing effect.The surface direct factors such as the length and width of karst collapse have a direct influence on the disaster evolution,which is the first priority of risk management and control.The middle indirect factors such as the characteristics of karst overburden and topography play a connecting role in the disaster system.The deep fundamental factors such as structural conditions and fire sources are located at the bottom of multi-level hierarchical structure,and the evolution and development of disaster can be essentially curbed only by the effective management and control on them.The research results can provide guidance for the disaster prevention and mitigation of gas pipeline engineering in karst geological hazard areas.

关 键 词：灾害系统 决策实验室分析法 解释结构模型 岩溶区 燃气管道 灾害演化 层次结构 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]