近20年中国经济增长与生产用水脱钩及影响因素分析  

Decoupling Analysis between China's Economic Growth and Production Water Consumption in the Last 20 Years and its Influencing Factors

作　　者：林钟华 刘树锋[1,2] 王海丽[1,2] 刘丙军 王小军[1,2] 沈思敏 吕曼[1,2] LIN Zhonghua;LIU Shufeng;WANG Haili;LIU Bingjun;WANG Xiaojun;SHEN Simin;LYU Man(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamics Research,Guangzhou 510635,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广州510635 [2]广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室,广州510635 [3]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第7期42-46,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(编号:2020-08)。

摘　　要：采用Topia弹性系数法,评价中国经济增长与生产用水脱钩的程度,并基于投入产出表结合结构分解法,将中国生产用水变动的影响要素分解为经济总量、需求结构、生产技术、第一产业用水效率、第二产业用水效率、第三产业用水效率共6个指标,探讨了2002—2020年中国经济增长与生产用水脱钩状态及影响因素的变化。结果表明:①中国经济增长与生产用水脱钩状态逐渐增强;②中国经济增长与生产用水脱钩的主要影响因素始终为第一、第二产业用水效率,次要影响因素为生产技术、需求结构和第三产业用水效率;③第一产业用水效率、第二产业用水效率、需求结构对脱钩的促进作用整体上减弱,生产技术、第三产业用水效率对脱钩的促进作用整体上增强。The Topia elasticity coefficient is used to evaluate the decoupling between economic growth and water consumption.Based on the input-output table and the structural decomposition method,the changes in water consumption are decomposed into the impact of changes in six indicators:economic aggregate,demand structure,production technology,water efficiency of the primary industry,water efficiency of the secondary industry,and water efficiency of the tertiary industry.The changes in the decoupling and its influencing factors between China's economic growth and production water consumption from 2002 to 2020 are analysis.The results show that:①The decoupling between economic growth and production water consumption has gradually strengthene in China;②The main influencing factors for the decoupling between China's economic growth and production water consumption are the water efficiency of the primary and secondary industries,while the secondary influencing factors are production technology,demand structure and water efficiency of the third industry.③The promoting effect of water efficiency in the primary industry,and secondary industry and demand structure on decoupling is generally weakened,while the promoting effect of production technology and water efficiency in the tertiary industry on decoupling is generally enhanced.

关 键 词：脱钩 生产用水 中国 投入产出 

分 类 号：F22[经济管理—国民经济] TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]