区域流动与婚姻选择:地理通婚圈对流动青年生育意愿的影响研究  

Regional Mobility and Marital Choice:A Study on the Impact of Geographical Intermarriage Circle on the Fertility Intention of Migrant Youth

作　　者：汪然 杨玲 WANG Ran;YANG Ling(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212100;School of Sociology and Anthropology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510275)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学人文社科学院,江苏镇江212100 [2]中山大学社会学与人类学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中国浦东干部学院学报》2024年第3期107-116,共10页Journal of China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于生育机会成本测度的生育支持政策研究”(项目编号:23CRK014);中国青少年研究会立项课题“Z世代流动青年社会融入研究”(项目编号:2023B05)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：根据中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,考察流动青年的地理通婚圈特征及其对生育意愿的影响,并从社会融入视角进行机制分析,可以为生育政策的调整和完善提供参考。研究结果显示,随着世代的更替,流动青年的地理通婚圈呈扩大趋势,这对其生育意愿产生了显著的负向影响。使用倾向得分匹配法和工具变量法处理样本选择偏差问题和内生性问题后,结果依然稳健。异质性分析表明,地理通婚圈对“乡—城”流动青年、男性流动青年、Z世代流动青年生育意愿的影响更大。从影响机制来看,社会融入是地理通婚圈影响流动青年生育意愿的重要机制。其中,经济融入发挥遮掩效应,关系融入、文化融入和心理融入发挥中介效应。Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),this study examines the characteristics of geographi-cal intermarriage circle of migrant youth and its impact on fertility intentions,conducts mechanism analysis from the perspective of social integration,and provides reference for the adjustment and improvement of fertility policies.The research output shows that,with the alternation of generations,the geographical intermarriage circle of migrant youth is expanding,and its expansion has a significant negative impact on their fertility intention.After the adoption of propensity score matching method and instru-mental variable method to address sample selection bias and endogenous issues,the results remain robust.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the geographical intermarriage circle has more impact on the fertility intention of rural-urban,male or Generation Z migrant youth.From the perspective of the influence mechanism,social integration is an important mechanism of the geographi-cal intermarriage circle to influence the fertility intention of migrant youth.Among them,economic integration plays masking effect,while relational integration,cultural integration,and psychological integration play mediating effect.

关 键 词：地理通婚圈 流动青年 生育意愿 Z世代 社会融入 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理] C922[社会学] C924.2