基于水动力模型与风险指标体系的丘陵区中小流域洪水风险分析  

Flood Risk Analysis of Small and Medium Watershed in Hilly Region Based on Hydrodynamic Model and Risk Index System

作　　者：张北辰 谷黄河[1,2] 郭磊 李倩 ZHANG Bei-chen;GU Huang-he;GUO Lei;LI Qian(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Hangzhou 310012,China;Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310002,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]浙江省水利防灾减灾重点实验室,浙江杭州310012 [3]浙江省水利水电勘测设计院有限责任公司,浙江杭州310002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第7期20-24,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：浙江省水利防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(FZJZSYS21008)。

摘　　要：中小流域常处于山区丘陵等复杂地形,地形破碎、居民点分散,在研究其洪水风险时,采用传统方法构建区域整体模型工作量大、计算时间长,因此亟需进一步优化现有模型构建方法。以地处浙江西部丘陵山区的建德市为例,通过构建一维水动力模型得到区域多种洪水要素,结合洪水风险指标体系定位区域重点风险点位,对重点区域构建一二维耦合模型精细化评估洪水风险。结果表明,采用先找薄弱环节再构造重点区域精细化模型的方法评估洪水风险,减少建德市建模面积约61%,大幅提高了模型计算效率;构建的一二维耦合模型具有较高的精度,河道洪峰水位误差低于0.2 m,空间淹没范围与调查结果基本一致;识别的区域防洪薄弱区域为梅城镇、三河村和大洋镇,其中梅城镇洪灾风险最高,三河村居民区被淹没比例最高,大洋镇淹没农田面积最大,这些区域防洪工程和应急抢险能力亟待提升。研究结果可为类似地区的洪水风险分析具有参考价值。Small and medium watershed is often located in complex terrain such as mountains and hills,with broken terrain and scattered residential areas.When studying its flood risk,it is difficult to build a global model and the calculation time is long,so it is necessary to optimize the modeling methods.This study takes Jiande City which is located in the hills of western Zhejiang Province as object.The flood factors are obtained by constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model.Combining with the flood risk index system,the key risk points of the region are located,and the key regional coupling model is constructed to assess the flood risk.The results show that using the method of finding the weak-link and then constructing key areas model to assess flood risk,the modeling area is reduced by 61%,and the calculation efficiency is improved;The coupled model has high accuracy,the error of peak water level is less than 0.2 m,and the inundation range is consistent with survey results;The identified weak areas are Meicheng Town,Sanhe Village and Dayang Town;Meicheng town has the highest flood risk,Sanhe village has the highest proportion of residential areas submerged,and Dayang Town has the largest inundated farmland.Flood control and response capabilities in these areas need to be improved.This study has reference value for flood risk analysis in similar areas.

关 键 词：一二维水动力学模型 AHP和熵权组合法 洪水风险分析 建德市 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]