随机模拟半偏减法集对势的区域水资源承载力评价方法  

Evaluation Method of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity by Random Simulated Semi-partial Subtraction Set Pair Potential

作　　者：葛瑞敏 周戎星[1] 刘凌 石询询 王平[2] 袁康 GE Rui-min;ZHOU Rong-xing;LIU Ling;SHI Xun-xun;WANG Ping;YUAN Kang(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Shaanxi Province Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design,Xi’an 710001,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]陕西省水利电力勘测设计研究院,陕西西安710001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第7期40-43,5,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52109009);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2108085QE254);陕西省水利科技计划项目(2022slkj-19)。

摘　　要：为准确评价区域水资源承载力状态,探讨以联系数和集对势为理论基础构建评价模型,分析普通半偏减法集对势的整体结构及物理意义,为进一步挖掘联系数半偏减法集对势的不确定信息,建立了联系数差异度系数与半偏减法集对势差异度系数的关系,提出了半偏减法集对势差异度系数的三角模糊数随机模拟方法,建立了随机模拟半偏减法集对势差异度系数的区域水资源承载力评价方法。将评价方法应用于安徽省蚌埠市水资源承载力评价中,发现态势变化呈现由偏反势过渡到均势再到偏反势;评价等级值整体处于2~3级之间,说明蚌埠市整体水资源承载状态较差,但有好转趋势。评价模型应用结果与实际情况吻合,为保障区域水资源高质量发展提供了新的评价方法。In order to accurately evaluate the state of regional water resources carrying capacity,this paper discusses the construction of an evaluation model based on the theory of connection number and set pair potential,analyzes the overall structure and physical significance of the common semi-biased subtraction set pair potential.To further explore the uncertainty information of the semi-biased subtraction set pair potential,the relationship between the difference coefficient of connection number and the difference coefficient of semi-biased subtraction set pair potential is established.A triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation method of semi-partial subtraction set for potential difference heterogeneity coefficient is proposed.And then an evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on random simulation of semi-partial subtraction set for potential difference heterogeneity coefficient is established.The proposed method is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Bengbu City,Anhui province.The results show that the trend changes from bias to balance and then to bias.The overall evaluation grade value is between 2-3 levels,indicating that the overall water resources carrying state of Bengbu City is poor,but there is a trend of improvement.The application results of the evaluation model are consistent with the actual situation,which provides a new evaluation method for ensuring the high-quality development of regional water resources.

关 键 词：集对分析 差异度系数 集对势 三角模糊数 水资源承载力 随机模拟 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]