基于最弱t-norm算法模糊贝叶斯网络土石坝渗漏风险分析  

Seepage Risk Analysis of Earth-rock Dams Based on the Weakes t-norm Algorithm and Fuzzy Bayesian Network

作　　者：范凯 王芳[1] 李宏恩[1] 艾喆 张铸 FAN Kai;WANG Fang;LI Hong-en;AI Zhe;ZHANG Zhu(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第7期119-123,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3005403);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(Y724003,Y722008,Y723007)。

摘　　要：针对土石坝工程渗漏影响要素多,风险评估体系不完善的问题,提出一种基于最弱t-norm算法模糊贝叶斯网络的土石坝渗漏风险分析模型。首先基于土石坝渗漏破坏成因构建土石坝渗漏风险分析网络,再基于层次分析法和最弱t-norm聚合算法求解不同专家判断的相似性结果,最后将相似性结果转化为概率后代入贝叶斯理论计算水库渗漏破坏风险。以2005年英德尔水库渗漏破坏事件为例,计算得到该库渗漏破坏概率为0.08,属于不可接受风险,并通过反向诊断验证了该模型的可靠性与灵敏性优于传统算法。研究结果可为土石坝渗流风险分析与处置决策提供参考。The influencing factors of earth-rock dam seepage are numerous,and the risk assessment system is inadequate.To solve the problem,the model of earth-rock dam seepage risk analysis was proposed based on the weakest t-norm algorithm and Fuzzy Bayesian network.Firstly,a risk analysis framework for seepage of earth-rock dams was constructed based on the causative factors of seepage-induced failure in earth-rock dams.Subsequently,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the weakest t-norm aggregation algorithm were used to solve the similarity results derived from diverse expert assessments.Finally,these similarity results were probabilistically transformed and integrated into Bayesian theory to calculate damage risk of reservoir leakage.Taking a case study of the 2005 Yingdeer Reservoir seepage failure incident for an example,the calculated probability of reservoir seepage failure stands at 0.08,belonging to an intolerable risk threshold.Through reverse diagnostic validation,the model's robustness and sensitivity surpass the conventional algorithms.The research results can provide reference for seepage risk analysis and decision-making in earth-rock dams.

关 键 词：土石坝渗漏 贝叶斯网络 最弱t-norm 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV697.3.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]