佳芦河流域设计年径流和设计洪水的广义可加模型  

Generalized additive models for design annual runoff and design flood in Jialu River basin

作　　者：莫淑红[1] 杨金来 梁伟佳 张高锋 吕婧妤 MO Shuhong;YANG Jinlai;LIANG Weijia;ZHANG Gaofeng;LYU Jingyu(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044,China;Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100044 [3]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2024年第7期14-29,共16页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52179024,U2040208);中国电建集团西北勘测设计院有限公司重大科技项目(XBY-ZDKJ-2020-01)。

摘　　要：受气象要素变化和人类活动的影响,径流序列的一致性常遭到破坏,需要直接针对非一致性水文序列进行研究。本文以黄土高原区佳芦河流域的年径流量和年最大洪峰流量为研究对象,基于广义可加模型(GAMLSS),优选气温、降水和库坝控制下的流域有效产流面积作为协变量进行模拟分析,并采用平均设计寿命水平法(ADLL)与等效可靠性法(ER)估算非平稳序列的设计年径流及洪峰流量。结果表明:两个水文序列均具有非一致性,所构建的多协变量年径流模型的低分位数曲线和高分位数曲线的拟合效果较好,洪峰流量模型整体模拟效果均较好;GAMLSS模型及相应的ADLL和ER方法在特定重现期或概率区间能提供更高精度的洪峰流量及年径流量设计值,且较好地体现了水文序列变化趋势对设计值的影响。The consistency of runoff sequences is often broken due to meteorological changes and human activities,and a direct study of non-consistent hydrological sequences becomes necessary.This paper presents a new method for estimating the design annual runoff and peak flood flow of non-stationary series for the Jialu River basin in the loess plateau based on Generalized Additive Model for Location,Scale and Shape(GAMLSS),using the average design life level method(ADLL)and equivalent reliability method(ER),and selecting air temperature,precipitation and the controlling river basin area of the reservoir and dam as covariates in simulation analysis.The results show that the two hydrological sequences are non-consistent,the developed multi-covariate annual runoff model gives good fitting to the low and high quantile curves,and the flood peak model has achieved satisfactory simulation results.Application of GAMLSS and the corresponding ADLL and ER methods provides higher accuracy of design peak flood and design annual runoff in a specific return period or probability interval,and thus the method better estimates the influence of the hydrological sequence trend on the design values.

关 键 词：径流序列 黄土高原 非一致性 平均设计寿命水平 广义可加模型 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]