水利工程施工的IT2FS-MARCOS风险评价  

IT2FS-MARCOS method for risk assessment of water conservancy engineering construction

作　　者：孙开畅[1] 薛文丽 李婷婷 陈千庆 SUN Kaichang;XUE Wenli;LI Tingting;CHEN Qianqing(School of Water Resources and Environment,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2024年第7期109-120,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0805100);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52179136)。

摘　　要：为解决专家决策的主观性造成的风险评价不确定性和不同风险参数权重下考虑多种风险因子评价问题,这里提出一种基于IT2FS-MARCOS法的水利工程施工风险评价方法。首先确定水利工程施工风险指标评估体系,运用最优最劣法(BWM)融合基于层间相关性的客观赋权法(CRITIC)的组合赋权法对各风险参数的权重进行分析;然后引入区间2型模糊集(IT2FS)改进多准则决策中的基于折衷方案的备选方案排序法(MARCOS)计算各风险因素的效用函数值,基于效用函数值进行风险因素分析和评价。结合工程实例应用,表明:地质、天气条件和作业计划安排等风险因素危险程度较高,其中地质条件对该施工项目安全威胁最大,为水利工程施工需重点管理的风险因子。该模型的特点是不仅考虑了专家评价的模糊性,而且采用多准则决策方法避免对风险参数简单加权,与优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)相比,本方法与工程实际符合得更好,有望为处理水利工程不确定信息下的风险评价提供一种新的思路。This paper develops a new risk assessment method for the construction of water conservancy projects based on the IT2FS-MARCOS method to tackle the uncertainty of risk assessment caused by the subjectivity of expert decision-making and to solve the problem of multiple risk factors under different risk parameter weights.First,a risk index evaluation system of water conservancy project construction is determined,and the weight of each risk parameter is analyzed using a weighting method that combines the best-worst method(BWM)and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC).Then,interval type-2 fuzzy sets(IT2FS)are applied in multi-criteria decision-making to improve the measurement of alternatives and ranking to compromise solution(MARCOS),which calculates the utility function values of each risk factor;risk factors are examined and evaluated based on these values.Finally,through application to engineering cases,we verified certain risk factors are highly dangerous,such as geology,weather conditions,and operation plan arrangement.Among them,geological condition is the most threatening to the safety of construction projects,a risk factor that needs to be managed carefully.The results show that this new method not only considers the fuzziness of expert evaluation,but also is able to avoid simple weighting of risk parameters by adopting a multi-criteria decision-making method.Compared with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method,our method gives a higher degree of fitting to the real engineering cases,and a new idea for risk assessment under information uncertainty of the projects.

关 键 词：水利工程施工 风险评价 BWM-CRITIC组合赋权法 区间2型模糊集 多准则决策 IT2FS-MARCOS法 

分 类 号：TV513[水利工程—水利水电工程]