基于贝叶斯岭回归的长江航运服务业集聚动力机制研究  

Study on the dynamic mechanism of the Yangtze River shipping service industry agglomeration based on Bayesian ridge regression

作　　者：孙德红[1] 周亿迎[2] 蒋佳伶 SUN Dehong;ZHOU Yiying;JIANG Jialing(Management College,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101,China;China Waterborne Transport Research Institute,Beijing 100088,China;Business College,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学管理学院,北京100101 [2]交通运输部水运科学研究院,北京100088 [3]北京联合大学商务学院,北京100101

出　　处：《中国航海》2024年第2期48-55,共8页Navigation of China

摘　　要：以江苏省13地市2 249家航运服务企业为研究对象,构建涵盖港口运营、经济发展和社会环境三方面的指标体系,为消除多重共线性确保拟合效果,利用贝叶斯岭回归模型研究不同类型的航运服务业集聚动力机制,结果表明:江苏省航运服务企业仍以运输仓储类低端航运服务企业为主,在沿海、沿江区域集聚效应明显;低端、中端航运服务企业的空间集聚的动力机制相近,受港口运营情况影响最为显著;高端航运服务企业对社会环境、经济发展等指标更加敏感,集装箱吞吐量之外的其他港口运营指标对其影响不显著;各地应因地制宜找准航运服务业发展着力点,制定差异化支持政策推动港航业转型升级。Taking 2249 shipping service enterprises in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province as the research object,the index system covering port operation,economic development and social environment is constructed.In order to eliminate multicollinearity and ensure the fitting effect,Bayesian ridge regression model is used to study the mechanism of agglomeration of different types of shipping service industries.The results show that the clustering effect is obvious in coastal and riverine areas;low-end and middle-end shipping service enterprises have similar spatial clustering power mechanism and are most significantly affected by the port operation;high-end shipping service enterprises are more sensitive to the social environment,economic development and other indexes,and other port operation indexes other than container throughput do not have a significant impact on them;localities should find the focus of the development of the shipping service industry in accordance with the local conditions and formulate differential support policies to promote the upgrading of the port and shipping industry.

关 键 词：航运服务业 集聚效应 动力机制 贝叶斯岭回归模型 

分 类 号：U6-9[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]