房价上涨对城镇居民初婚推迟的影响  

The Impact of Rising Housing Prices on the Postponement of Age at First Marriage amongUrban Residents

作　　者：许敏波 曾梦 房慧 Xu Minbo;Zeng Meng;Fang Hui(Business School,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2024年第3期64-86,共23页Studies in Labor Economics

摘　　要：近20年来,中国年轻群体的初婚年龄不断推迟,与房价攀升趋势相吻合,二者之间的关系值得探究。本文利用2010年以来的全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据及城市统计信息,实证检验了城市房价上涨对城镇居民未婚比例和初婚年龄的影响。基于性别-年龄群组的分析结果发现,房价上涨显著提高了16~49岁适婚年龄人口的未婚比例,房价上涨1%导致城镇居民的未婚比例提高约0.11个百分点。进一步利用2010年和2020年两次全国人口普查数据构建的个人回顾性事件史数据进行生存分析,结果表明房价上涨导致年轻群体维持未婚状态的几率增加,房价上涨1%导致适婚人口的结婚几率在2000-2010年间和2010-2020年间分别降低0.09个和0.13个百分点,影响程度不断增大。分年龄段来看,房价上涨主要使得30岁以下年轻群体推迟了初婚时间。Over the past 20 years,the age at first marriage among young people in China has been steadily increasing,coinciding with rising housing prices.This paper uses data from national censuses since 2010,one percent sample survey,and urban statistical information to empirically investigate the impact of rising urban housing prices on the proportion of unmarried urban residents and the age at first marriage.Analysis by gender and age groups reveals that rising housing prices significantly increase the proportion of unmarried individuals aged between 16 and 49.Specifically,a one percent increase in housing prices results in an approximately O.11 percentage point increase in the proportion of unmarried urban residents.Further survival analysis using retrospective event history data from the 2010 and 2020 national censuses indicates that rising housing prices increase the likelihood of young people remaining unmarried.A one percent increase in housing prices reduces the marriage probability of the marriageable population by 0.09 percentage points between 2000 and 2010 and by 0.13 percentage points between 2010 and 2020,with the impact becoming more pronounced over time.By age group,rising housing prices primarily delay the age at first marriage among young people under 30.

关 键 词：房价上涨 初婚年龄 婚姻市场 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理] F299.23[社会学]