中国装备制造业贸易依存度、产业升级与绿色发展的动态关系——基于面板数据的PVAR模型分析  

Research on the Dynamic Relationship among Equipment Manufacturing Industry Trade Dependence,Industrial Upgrading and Green Development:Empirical Evidence of PVAR Model Based on Panel Data

作　　者：谭梦卓 冯烽[2] TAN Mengzhuo;FENG Feng(The Institute for Sustainable Development,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao 999078,China;Division of Big Data and Economic Modeling,Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]澳门科技大学可持续发展研究所,中国澳门999078 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所大数据与经济模型研究室,北京100732

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第8期45-52,79,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球价值链视角下中国装备制造业转型升级与绿色发展耦合研究”(18BJY101);中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室项目(2024SYZH004);广西哲学社会科学研究课题“数字经济促进广西经济绿色转型的作用机理及实现路径研究”(23FYJ063)。

摘　　要：论文以2006—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据为样本,构建PVAR模型,引入脉冲响应函数,从静态和动态视角分析三者间的相互影响。研究结果表明:(1)贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度对产业升级有短期促进的作用和长期抑制的作用,对绿色发展有长期的抑制作用。(2)产业升级对贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度以及绿色发展有长期的抑制作用。(3)绿色发展对贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度有短期促进的作用和长期抑制的作用,对产业升级有长期的促进作用。基于研究结论,进而提出优化装备制造业对外贸易模式、鼓励装备制造业向高端化绿色化升级、持续深化绿色发展理念的建议。This paper analyzes the degree of mutual influence between equipment manufacturing industry trade dependence,industrial upgrading,and green development from both a static and dynamic perspective by constructing a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model and employing an impulse response function based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020.The empirical results are:(1)Trade dependence,import dependence,and export dependence have short-term stimulating effects,long-term inhibiting effects on industrial upgrading,and long-term inhibiting effects on green development.(2)Industrial upgrading has a long-term inhibitory effect on trade dependence,import dependence,export dependence,and green development.(3)Green development has a short-term stimulating effect,a long-term inhibiting effect on trade dependence,import dependence and export dependence,and a long-term stimulating effect on industrial upgrading.In view of this,we propose suggestions to optimize the foreign trade model of the equipment manufacturing industry,encourage its upgrading towards high-end and green development,and continue to deepen the concept of green development.

关 键 词：装备制造业 贸易依存度 产业升级 绿色发展 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9