“保险+期货”服务生猪养殖市场风险管理的定价机制与效应分析  

Pricing Mechanism and Effect Evaluation of “Insurance +Futures” in Managing Hog Breeding Market Risks

作　　者：徐媛媛 张硕 崔小年 齐皓天 XU Yuanyuan;ZHANG Shuo;CUI Xiaonian;QI Haotian

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [3]郑州商品交易所,郑州450004 [4]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2024年第8期112-126,共15页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“收储制度改革背景下粮农的市场风险管理问题研究”(编号:18CJY036);国家自然科学基金面上项目“农产品期货与现货价格联合分布估计、基差风险与含权套期保值研究”(编号:72173052)。

摘　　要：本文立足养殖成本与市场价格双重视角,探讨“保险+期货”服务中国生猪养殖市场风险管理的市场条件、方案设计与定价机制,并基于“价格保险”与“再保险”功能定位,全面探析“保险+期货”风险管理效应。研究发现:(1)波动率和保险周期是“保险+期货”费率决定的主要变量,其中生猪项目费率仅在2个月周期内低于6%;(2)短周期、多批次承保更能适应畜牧养殖循环滚动生产的特点,但其风险转移效率和“再保险”功能发挥受到配套场内期权缺位、手续费与流动性等调仓成本的制约。最后,提出以持续做好市场培育、强化业务风险控制、健全产品供给体系为基础推动“保险+期货”服务生猪养殖业高质量发展。Based on the dual perspectives of breeding costs and market prices,this paper firstly explores the market conditions,scheme design and pricing mechanism of “insurance + futures” serving in China's risk management of hog breeding market.Risk management effects are further analyzed in view of the dual functional positioning of “price insurance” and “reinsurance”.The results suggest that volatility and insurance period are the crucial variables in determining the premium rates of “insurance + futures”,with the premium rate for hog insurance remaining below 6% only within a 2-month period.Moreover,short-term and multi-batch underwriting adapts effectively to the characteristics of the circular rolling production of livestock breeding,but their risk transfer efficiency and “reinsurance” function are constrained by the absence of exchange-traded options,transaction fees,liquidity costs,etc.Finally,we propose continuously fostering market development,strengthening business risk control,and establishing a sound product supply system to promote the advancement of “insurance + futures” in serving high-quality development of the hog breeding industry.

关 键 词：生猪市场风险 保险+期货 养殖成本 风险管理效应 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F323.7F724.5F326.3