农业强国战略背景下中国大豆供给安全:现实基础、潜力研判与策略选择  

China's Soybean Supply Security under the Background of Agricultural Power Strategy:Realistic Basis,Potential Analysis,and Strategic Selection

作　　者：李辉尚[1] 李美琪 黄晓慧 胡冰川[2] LI Huishang;LI Meiqi;HUANG Xiaohui;HU Bingchuan

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2024年第7期48-58,共11页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:72073131);中国农业科学院创新工程(编号:CAAS-AII-2016);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(编号:JBYW-AII-2022-10,JBYW-AII-2021-41,Y2023GH01)。

摘　　要：大豆是重要的战略性农产品之一,在农业强国战略中有着突出重要地位。但我国大豆对外依存度和进口来源集中度过高,在全球地缘政治等重大事件冲击下,贸易链、供应链不确定性风险集聚、脆弱性凸显;立足国内,确保大豆供给安全,实现风险可控,是我国新时期全面保障粮食安全的战略需要,也是实现农业强国建设目标的内在要求。当前,我国大豆有效供给面临技术“卡脖子”问题突出、核心产区加速北移、比较效益相对较低和供需结构性矛盾凸显等“四元”现实困境;多情形测算结果显示,立足国内提升大豆产能的潜力巨大,需多措并举、综合施策,持续增强我国大豆供给安全保障能力。Soybean is one of the important strategic agricultural products and plays a prominent and important role in the strategy of agricultural power.However,China's soybean dependence on foreign countries is too high,and the concentration of import sources is too high.Under the impact of major events such as global geopolitics,the uncertainty risk of the trade and supply chains have become prominent.Based on domestic situation,ensuring the security of soybean supply and achieving controllable risks is necessary for China to comprehensively ensure food security strategy in new era,and also an inherent requirement for achieving the goal of building an agricultural power.At present,China's effective supply of soybeans is facing serious technical bottleneck problems,accelerated northward migration of core production areas,relatively low comparative benefits,and obvious structural contradictions between supply and demand.The results show that there is still great potential to increase soybean production capacity based on domestic conditions,and multiple measures should be taken simultaneously and comprehensively to continuously enhance the security capacity of soybean supply.

关 键 词：农业强国 大豆 供给安全 潜力研判 策略路径 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]