国内国际双循环对冲“友岸外包”经济成本的效应评估  

Effect Assessment of Domestic and International Dual Circulation in Hedging the Economic Cost of"Friend-shoring"

作　　者：钱学锋[1,2] 周文倩 Qian Xuefeng;Zhou Wenqian(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Institute of China(Hubei)Pilot Free Trade Zone)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院 [2]中国(湖北)自由贸易试验区研究院

出　　处：《管理世界》2024年第7期61-83,共23页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社科重大基金项目“全球价值链背景下国际贸易政策体系调整与中国应对策略研究”(基金号:21&ZD083)的资助。

摘　　要：近年来,美国推动实施“友岸外包”政策,使得全球供应链不确定性增加。为明确这一政策产生的影响,本文构建包含投入产出关联、劳动力迁移和资本配置的一般均衡模型,通过切断投入产出关联,增加非关税壁垒以及提高关税3种方式刻画“友岸外包”,量化评估实施“友岸外包”政策给中国和世界带来的经济成本。研究表明:平均而言,3种刻画方式下,中国消费者福利分别降低4.76%、2.74%和2.90%,而世界各国消费者福利遭受的损失分别为11.07%、1.34%和5.93%。机制分解表明,贸易量效应、贸易条件效应和要素配置效应是“友岸外包”经济成本的主要来源。反事实模拟结果显示,畅通国内大循环和国际循环将使“友岸外包”引起的福利损失分别降低27.09%和15.27%。其中,国内循环中要素市场一体化发挥的作用要大于商品市场一体化。此外,全面推动国内国际双循环可使“友岸外包”造成的福利损失降低43.80%。In recent years, the United States has promoted the "friend-shoring" policy, increasing uncertainty in global supply chains. To clarify the impacts of this policy, this paper develops a general equilibrium model incorporating input-output linkages, labor migration, and capital allocation. By severing input-output linkages, increasing non-tariff barriers, and raising tariffs, we simulate "friend-shoring" in three scenarios to quantitatively evaluate its economic costs on China and the world. The findings indicate that, on average, under the three depicted scenarios, China's consumer welfare decreases by 4.76%, 2.74% and 2.90%, respectively, while global consumer welfare suffers losses of11.07%, 1.34% and 5.93%. Mechanism decomposition indicates that changes in the volume of trade effects, terms of trade effects, and factor allocation effects are the main sources of the economic costs of "friend-shoring". To clarify China's policy options for effectively mitigating these economic costs, this paper further simulates the hedging effects of the dual circulation development pattern. The results suggest that improving domestic circulation and international circulation can reduce welfare losses from "friend-shoring" by 27.09% and 15.27%, respectively. In domestic circulation, the integration of factor markets plays a more significant role than the integration of commodity markets. Moreover,comprehensively promoting dual circulation can reduce the welfare losses by 43.80%.

关 键 词：友岸外包 双循环 市场一体化 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]