基本公共服务如何影响农业转移人口定居意愿——基于城市劳动力需求冲击及房价异质性分析  

How Does Basic Public Service Affect the Settlement Intention of Rural-urban Migrants:Based on the Heterogeneity of City Labor Demand Shock and Housing Prices

作　　者：付明辉 刘传江 董延芳[3] FU Minghui;LIU Chuanjiang;DONG Yanfang

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院保险学院,广州510521 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106 [3]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第8期52-71,共20页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数字化转型对农民工高质量就业的影响机制研究”(编号:22YJC790027);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目“数字化转型与高质量就业研究:理论机制、风险评估与政策优化(编号:2023A1515011837)”;国家社科基金重点项目“新型城镇化升级与乡村振兴统筹发展视角的农业转移人口市民化研究”(编号:19AJL014)。

摘　　要：本文从成本收益视角构建基本公共服务影响农业转移人口定居意愿的两阶段理论模型,基于中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)2017-2018年数据和城市统计数据,实证分析了基本公共服务对农业转移人口定居意愿的影响及其影响机制,以及城市异质性下基本公共服务的定居效应差异。研究结果表明:(1)城市基本公共服务显著提高了农业转移人口的城市定居意愿,基本公共服务水平每增加1%,农业转移人口的定居意愿显著提高3.4%,意味着农业转移人口对基本公共服务改善的支付意愿约为309元;(2)经营性公共服务对农业转移人口的定居效应高于非经营性公共服务;(3)基本公共服务通过提高就业质量和社会保障间接提高了农业转移人口的定居意愿,其中就业质量发挥的间接效应更大;(4)基本公共服务对高劳动力需求冲击城市和低房价城市的农业转移人口具有显著的市民化效应。本文为以加快推进基本公共服务均等化为抓手,促进农业转移人口市民化提供了经验参考。This paper constructs a two-stage theoretical model of the impact of basic public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants from the perspective of cost and benefit.Based on the data of"2017 and 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)"and citylevel statistical data,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of basic public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants and investigates the underlying mechanisms,investigates the impact of heterogeneity public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants,and then conducts a city-heterogeneity analysis.The results show that:(1)city basic public service can significantly enhance rural-urban migrants'settlement intention in cities,if the level of basic public service increases by 1%,the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants will increase by 3.4%,which means that rural-urban migrants'willingness to pay for the improvement of basic public services is about 309 Yuan.(2)The effect of operating public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants is higher than that of non-operating public service.(3)The mechanism test results show that employment quality and social security of rural-urban migrants are the channels by which basic public service can improve the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants,and the indirect effect of employment quality is greater.(4)Basic public service significantly affects the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants in cities with higher labor demand shocks and lower housing prices.This study enriches the literature on the citizenization effect of basic public service and provides an empirical reference for promoting the citizenization of ruralurban migrants by accelerating the equalization of basic public services.

关 键 词：定居意愿 CMDS 经营性公共服务 支付意愿 劳动力需求冲击 就业质量 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] D630[政治法律—政治学]