某电子城和家居市场从业人员甲醛和苯的健康风险的蒙特卡罗模拟和敏感性分析  

Health Risk Assessment for Formaldehyde and Benzene in Electronics City and Furniture Market:Monte Carlo Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis

作　　者：张金萍 陈萌[1,2] 康家宁 ZHANG Jinping;CHEN Meng;KANG Jianing(School of Environment and Energy Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;Key Laboratory of HVAC,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Gas Energy Development Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学环境与能源工程学院,北京100044 [2]北京建筑大学“供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程”北京市重点实验室,北京100044 [3]北京燃气能源发展有限公司,北京100101

出　　处：《建筑科学》2024年第6期289-300,共12页Building Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“室内香烛燃烧产生的多环芳烃的散发特征、分配规律及暴露风险”(51378043)。

摘　　要：在初步调研发现某电子城、家居市场和办公室等可能存在潜在的空气污染,故本文对这3种场所进行了深入研究,首先对其不同功能区的甲醛、苯、甲苯、二甲苯及TVOC(Total Volatile Organic Compounds,TVOC)进行测试采样和对比分析,然后分别利用甲醛及苯浓度健康风险评价模型,在Crystal Ball软件中通过蒙特卡罗模拟对各场所工作人员进行了甲醛及苯暴露健康风险的评价,并利用敏感性分析对暴露参数的不确定性进行了讨论。结果表明:1)测试场所存在甲醛污染,浓度最高的在电子城功能区,为0.249 mg/m^(3),家具市场最高为0.195 mg/m^(3);但苯、甲苯、二甲苯和TVOC在各场所几乎未超标。2)从业人员存在不同程度的甲醛健康风险。电子城的甲醛平均浓度对45~60岁年长男性工作人员的致癌风险较高,最高为4.02×10^(-4);同时电子城所有人员均存在甲醛非致癌风险;3)除办公室人员和家具市场年轻人员的苯致癌风险较低外,其他从业人员均存在苯致癌风险;但苯的非致癌风险不会对人员产生不良影响。4)同性别时,甲醛和苯致癌风险均为45~60岁年长>18~44岁年轻,非致癌风险为18~44岁>45~60岁,同年龄时,男性风险高于女性。5)对年轻人员,暴露持续时间对不确定性影响的方差贡献率最高,超过了90%;对年长人员,体重的影响最高,约50%。呼吸速率对两个年龄段的贡献率均最小。6)同年龄和性别时,暴露持续时间对致癌风险不确定性的贡献率占主导,超90%;对非致癌风险,贡献最高的为体重,约80%,而暴露持续时间几乎对其无影响。研究结果可为人体健康保护提供指导思路。Based on the preliminary surveys,potential air pollution was suggested in an electronic city,a home furnishing market,and an office building,prompting an in-depth study of these venues.Firstly,formaldehyde,benzene,toluene,xylene,and TVOC levels were measured in various sections of these venues.The data were then compared and analyzed.Given the formaldehyde and benzene concentration-based health risk assessment model,health risks for the staff exposed to these substances were estimated through a Monte Carlo simulation in Crystal Ball software.The sensitivity analysis in the Crystal Ball also shed light on the risk assessment uncertainty associated with exposure parameters.The results indicate that:1) test areas showed formaldehyde contamination,peaking at 0.249 mg/m^(3) and 0.195 mg/m^(3) in a section of the electronic product city and the home furnishing market,respectively.Benzene,toluene,xylene,and TVOC concentration levels were mostly within standards.2) There is a high formaldehyde health risk for the male staff aged 45-60 in the electronic product market,with the largest cancer risk(CR) value of 4.02×10^(-4).Additionally,all staff in the electronic product market are exposed to a non-carcinogenic risk.3) Apart from office staff and young staff in the home furnishing market,there is a cancer risk from benzene exposure by other staff.There is a low likelihood of adverse health effects caused by non-carcinogenic risk for benzene exposure.4) For both formaldehyde and benzene,the staff aged 45-60 expose to higher cancer risks compared to those aged 18-44,within the same gender.However,the younger age group,18-44,experiences higher non-carcinogenic risks.Across the same age groups,males are at a higher risk than females.5) For young staff,exposure duration accounts for over 90% of variance in the uncertainty analysis,while for older adults,body weight has the highest variance contribution to the uncertainty analysis,about 50%.Breathing rate contributes the least for both age groups.6) For staff with the same age

关 键 词：电子城 家具市场 甲醛 苯 致癌风险 非致癌风险 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]