F_(10.7)指数与Ap指数短期预报检验  

Verification of Short-term Forecast for F_(10.7) Index and Ap Index

作　　者：陈安芹 李沐 郭建广 刘丹丹 唐伟[1,2] 赵海娟 CHEN Anqin;LI Mu;GUO Jianguang;LIU Dandan;TANG Wei;ZHAO Haijuan(Key Laboratory of Space Weather,National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather),China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;Innovation Center for FengYun Meteorological Satellite(FYSIC),Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局空间天气重点开放实验室/国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心),北京100081 [2]许健民气象卫星创新中心,北京100081

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2024年第3期425-436,共12页Chinese Journal of Space Science

基　　金：中国科学院空间科学战略性先导科技专项(XDA15350203);国家自然科学基金项目(42004144)共同资助。

摘　　要：国家空间天气监测预警中心(NCSW)从2004年7月1日开始对用户提供空间天气预报服务,其中包括未来24 h,48 h和72 h的F_(10.7)指数和Ap指数预报.本文对2005-2022年NCSW的F_(10.7)指数和Ap指数的预报结果进行了检验.通过检验发现,NCSW预报的未来24 h,48 h和72 h的F_(10.7)指数平均比实测值偏小;未来24 h的Ap指数平均比实测值偏大,未来48 h和72 h的Ap指数平均比实测值偏小.太阳活动水平越高,F_(10.7)指数的预报误差越大;但是Ap指数预报误差最大值反而出现在太阳活动下降段.此外,通过与跟报模型、14天回归模型、14天回归修正模型、27天回归模型和27天回归修正模型等简单的统计预报模型对比发现,NCSW的预报性能整体优于简单的统计预报模型.对于F_(10.7)指数,NCSW的预报性能略好于跟报模型,明显好于4个回归模型,但是当太阳活动水平较高时,跟报模型未来72 h的F_(10.7)指数预报性能优于NCSW;对于Ap指数,多数情况下,NCSW的预报性能明显优于统计预报模型,但是地磁扰动剧烈时,27天回归模型预报的Ap指数反而比NCSW的预报更准确.The National Center for Space Weather(NCSW)has been providing space weather fore-casts for the next 24 h,48 h and 72 h since 1 July 2004.In this paper,the average error,the average ab-solute error,the skill score,the median error and the interquartile range of error are used to verify the F_(10.7) index and Ap index forecasted by NCSW from 2005 to 2022.It was found that the F_(10.7) index fore-casted by NCSW for the next 24 h,48 h,and 72 h are usually smaller than the observed F_(10.7) index;the Ap index for the next 24 h is usually higher than the observed Ap index,while Ap index forecasted for the next 48 h and 72 h are usually lower than the observed Ap index.The higher the level of solar activi-ty,the greater the forecast error of the F_(10.7) index is.However,the maximum forecast error of the Ap in-dex occurs in the declining period of solar activity.In addition,we compared the forecasts of NCSW with the simple statistical models such as the persistence model,14 days recurrence model,14 days cor-rected recurrence model,27 days recurrence model,and 27 days corrected recurrence model,and found that the forecast performance of NCSW is usually better than that of five simple statistical models.For the F_(10.7) index,the forecast performance of NCSW is slightly better than that of the persistence model,and significantly better than that of the four recurrence models.However,when the solar activity level is high,the persistence model's performance of the F_(10.7) index for the next 72 h is better than that of NC-SW.For the Ap index,in most cases,the performance of NCSW is significantly better than that of sta-tistical models.However,when geomagnetic disturbances are severe,the Ap index forecasted by the 27 days recurrence model is more accurate than that forecasted by NCSW.

关 键 词：空间天气 预报检验 F_(10.7)指数 AP指数 

分 类 号：P353[天文地球—空间物理学]