基于模糊层次分析法的地铁轨道工程风险管理研究  

Research on Risk Management of Subway Track Engineering Based on FAHP

作　　者：程頔 CHENG Di(China Railway 15th Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200040,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁十五局集团有限公司,上海200040

出　　处：《价值工程》2024年第22期78-81,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：随着地铁建设行业竞争加剧的态势,研究地铁轨道工程的风险管理具备现实意义。文章针对轨道工程风险的特性,先采用工作结构分解法和专家调查法识别风险,构建风险评估指标体系。再使用层次分析法计算指标体系中各指标的相对权重系数,结合专家打分得到风险因素发生概率和损失大小的隶属度,按照R=P*C原则构建出风险评价的模型,用模糊综合评价法运算得出风险的模糊值。最后按风险模糊值的大小,针对重点风险因素提出应对措施。With the increasing competition in the subway construction industry,it is of practical significance to study the risk management of subway track projects.In view of the characteristics of track project risks,this paper first uses the work structure decomposition method and expert survey method to identify risks and construct a risk assessment index system.Then,the relative weight coefficient of each indicator in the index system is calculated using the hierarchical analysis method.The probability of occurrence of risk factors and the degree of loss are obtained by combining the expert scores.According to the principle of R=P*C,a risk assessment model is constructed,and the fuzzy value of risk is calculated using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,according to the size of the risk fuzzy value,countermeasures are proposed for key risk factors.

关 键 词：风险管理 地铁轨道工程 专家调查法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]