近40年气候变化对甘肃天水梨树产量形成的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Yield of Pear Trees in Tianshui of Gansu Province in Recent 40a

作　　者：刘亮 许赟恺 李霖 贾彬 李宏伟 LIU Liang;XU Yunkai;LI Lin;JIA Bin;LI Hongwei(Tianshui Weather Modification Service Center,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China;Tailu Forest Farm,Xiaolongshan Forestry Protection Center,Gansu Province,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China;Tianshui Fuxi Road Yifu Primary School,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China;Tianshui Meteorological Bureau,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]天水市人工影响天气服务中心,甘肃天水741000 [2]甘肃省小陇山林业保护中心太碌林场,甘肃天水741020 [3]天水市伏羲路逸夫小学,甘肃天水741000 [4]天水市气象局,甘肃天水741000

出　　处：《农学学报》2024年第7期89-93,共5页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：天水市科技支撑计划项目“气象网络线路状态自动化监测报警系统”(ZcMs2023-26-A)。

摘　　要：甘肃天水因其地处陇中黄土高原腹地,光热充足,土层深厚,成为中国北方干寒梨区水果生产基地。然而,随全球性气候变暖的趋势,天水地区气象灾害的影响日益严重。特别是对于梨树这样的高大植物,其早花期和长生长周期使其在气候变化面前尤为脆弱,进而影响产量的形成。为掌握气候变化对梨树总产量的影响,本研究通过统计学方法分析了近40 a来影响天水梨树产量的主要农业气象条件。分析发现,影响梨产量的关键农业气象要素主要包括上一年秋季9月下旬的降水量、春季4月上旬的平均气温以及春末5月上中旬的日照时数。进一步研究表明,秋冬季温度的显著升高以及初春干旱气候的加剧,增加了果树营养耗损,不利花芽的正常发育,从而对果树产量构成负面影响。本研究结果为当地果树生产和管理部门在有效利用气候资源及其产业化布局方面提供了决策依据。Tianshui City of Gansu Province has become a pear fruit production base in the dry and cold region of northern China,due to its location in the hinterland of the Loess Plateau in central Gansu,with abundant light and heat,and deep soil layers.Affected by global climate change,the harm of meteorological disasters in Tianshui has significantly increased.Due to the tall height,early flowering period and long growth cycle of pear trees,their growth,development,and yield are more susceptible to the impact of climate change.In order to understand the impact of climate change on the total yield of pear trees,using statistical methods,this study analyzed the main agrometeorological conditions influencing pear tree yield in Tianshui over the past 40 years.The study identified the significant agrometeorological factors affecting pear yields such as the precipitation in early autumn(the last ten days of September),average temperature in mid-spring(the first ten days of April),and sunshine hours in late spring(the first ten days and middle ten days of May).Additionally,the substantial increase in temperatures during autumn and winter,coupled with early spring arid conditions,exacerbated nutrient depletion in fruit trees and hindered the normal development of flower buds,thereby impacting pear tree yields.The study results provide a decision-making support for effective utilization of climate resources and development of industrial layouts in fruit tree production and management departments.

关 键 词：甘肃天水 气候变化 农业气象条件 梨树 产量 影响 全球变暖 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]