基于故障物理的低频电源柜可靠性评估和预测  

Reliability evaluation and prediction of low-frequency power cabinets based on physics of failure

作　　者：韩文兴 闵渊 孙博[2] 周乐阳 杨诚 樊冬明 HAN Wenxing;MIN Yuan;SUN Bo;ZHOU Leyang;YANG Cheng;FAN Dongming(Key Laboratory of Nuclear Reactor System Design Technology,Chengdu 610213,China;School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijng 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]核反应堆系统设计技术重点实验室,成都610213 [2]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2024年第S01期249-257,282,共10页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

摘　　要：提出了基于故障物理的系统可靠性预计方法,实现低频电源柜系统的可靠性评估和预测。首先,依据低频电源柜的功能关系及备件情况,构建了系统可靠性模型,并对低频电源柜系统进行故障模式、机理及影响分析(FMMEA),得到系统的薄弱单元及现有和潜在的故障模式。针对薄弱单元,构建有限元仿真模型及故障物理模型。考虑到制造不确定性及模型不确定性等不确定因素的影响,利用蒙特卡洛方法,获取了各故障影响下的低频电源柜薄弱单元的寿命分布。通过时间竞争原理,融合多故障对产品的影响,获取融合故障的可靠度结果。最后,依据各单元可靠度结果及系统可靠性框图模型,计算系统的可靠度函数、故障率及平均故障前时间,并进行可靠性灵敏度分析。为核反应堆低频电源柜提出了有效的可靠性评估和预测方法,有助于发现薄弱环节提高可靠性水平,为核能领域可靠性提升提出了新思路。The reliability of low-frequency power cabinets,as critical components within nuclear reactors,directly impacts the proper functioning of the entire nuclear reactor system.This paper presents a Physics-of-failure-based system reliability prediction method that combines simulation calculations with physics of failure models to achieve reliability prediction and improvement of low-frequency power cabinet systems.Initially,a system reliability model is established based on the functional relationships and spare parts availability of the low-frequency power cabinet system.Subsequently,a Fault Mode,Mechanism,and Effects Analysis(FMMEA)is conducted to identify vulnerable components and existing as well as potential failure modes within the low-frequency power cabinet system.Finite element simulation models and physics of failure models are then constructed for these identified vulnerable components.Accounting for uncertainties arising from manufacturing and modeling,the Monte Carlo method is employed to obtain the lifespan distribution of vulnerable components under various fault scenarios.By integrating the effects of multiple faults on the product using the principle of time-to-competition,a combined reliability result incorporating these faults is derived.Finally,based on the individual component reliability results and the system reliability block diagram model,the reliability function,failure rate,and mean time to failure of the entire system are calculated.And conduct reliability sensitivity analysis to consider the impact of design parameters on reliability.The effective reliability prediction method proposed in this study for low-frequency power cabinets in nuclear reactors facilitates the identification of vulnerable points in system and the elevation of reliability levels during the design process,presenting novel insights into reliability prediction in the field of nuclear energy.

关 键 词：故障物理 故障模式、机理及影响分析(FMMEA) 有限元仿真 可靠性评估和预测 

分 类 号：N945.17[自然科学总论—系统科学]