数字经济政策强度对制造业稳就业的影响研究  

The Influence of Digital Economy Policy Intensity on Stable Employment in Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：张可云[1] 庄宗武 ZHANG Ke-yun;ZHUANG Zong-wu

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2024年第4期155-171,239,共18页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073137);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003190)。

摘　　要：在数字经济发展如火如荼、数字经济政策不断出台的现实背景下,中国制造业的就业比重呈现持续下降的态势,因此,厘清数字经济政策能否推进制造业稳就业问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章利用城市政府工作报告中的数字经济相关词频占比表征城市的数字经济政策强度,进而考察数字经济政策强度对制造业稳就业的影响及其机制。研究发现,数字经济政策强度的提升既会通过就业创造效应与利润创造效应促进制造业就业,又会通过就业结构转换效应阻碍制造业就业,但正向影响大于负向影响,因而数字经济可以作为目前中国制造业稳就业的抓手。解构数字经济政策的进一步分析发现,数字产品制造、数字产品服务与数字要素驱动政策强度的提升显著促进了制造业就业,其余各类数字经济政策则未产生明显影响。此外,数字经济政策助力制造业稳就业并不是以降低制造业就业质量为代价的。研究结论不仅有助于正确认识数字经济对制造业稳就业的积极作用,还能够为提前制定相关政策、保持制造业比重基本稳定提供有益启示。Under the realistic background of the rapid development of digital economy and the continuous introduction of related policies,the employment proportion of China’s manufacturing industry continues to decline.Therefore,it is of important theoretical and practical value to clarify whether digital economic policies can promote stable employment in manufacturing industry.This paper uses the frequency proportion of words related with digital economy in the government work report to describe the city’s digital economy policy intensity,and then examines the influence and its mechanism of digital economy policy intensity on the stable employment of manufacturing industry.It is found that while the improvement of the intensity of digital economic policy will promote the stable employment of manufacturing industry through the effect of employment creation and profit creation,it nevertheless can also hinder the stable employment through the transformation effect of employment structure,but the positive impact is greater than the negative one.Therefore digital economy can be used as an effective means for stable employment in China’s manufacturing industry.Based on the further analysis of the deconstruction of digital economic policy intensity,it is found that the increase of digital product manufacturing,digital product service and digital factor-driven policy intensity has significantly promoted the stable employment of the manufacturing industry,while other kinds of digital economic policy intensity has not had a significant impact.In addition,the digital economic policy helping the manufacturing industry to stabilize employment is not at the expense of reducing the quality of manufacturing employment.The findings of this paper not only help to clarify the debate whether the digital economy can promote stable employment in the manufacturing industry,but also provide useful inspiration for formulating relevant policies in advance and keeping the proportion of the manufacturing industry basically stable.

关 键 词：数字经济政策 制造业 稳就业 就业创造效应 利润创造效应 就业结构转换效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F424F249.2