基于Copula函数的区域雨潮遭遇风险概率分析  

Research on the joint probability of rainstorm and tidal level based on the Copula function

作　　者：汪海航 李帆 吴兴祥 秦志琼 孟萌 蒋晓蕾 WANG Haihang;LI Fan;WU Xingxiang;QIN Zhiqiong;MENG Meng;JIANG Xiaolei(Yangzhou University College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou 225009,China;Yangzhou Survey Design Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Yangzhou 225007,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009 [2]扬州市勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225007

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）》2024年第4期425-435,共11页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52109036,42201128,42301026);扬州大学研究生科研与实践创新计划资助项目(SJCX23_1949)。

摘　　要：随着气候变化、人类活动影响加剧以及城市化进程等一系列事件的加快,我国的城市内涝问题日渐突出。以扬州市仪邗区域为例,由于扬州南濒长江,受长江洪水、潮水顶托,当面临暴雨等灾害时,仪邗区域无法快速外排,进而增大了内涝风险,针对内涝灾害的研究也因此成为了重要内容。本文利用Copula函数构建了研究区域最大三日面雨量和长江最大三日平均潮位的联合概率分布函数,并对不同雨潮组合情况下的遭遇概率进行分析,最终得到了雨潮的联合风险概率和同现风险概率。最终结果显示,Copula函数在雨潮联合概率分布方面拟合良好。这一拟合结果不仅可以为解决仪邗山洪在长江高水位时出路不足的问题提供一定的理论支持和科学依据,也可以为其他感潮河段的防洪决策提供参考。With the aggravation of the climate change and human activities as well as the acceleration of urbanization,urban pluvial flooding has become an increasingly prominent issue in China.For example,the city of Yangzhou,located in the north of the Yangtze River,is affected by the Yangtze River floods and tidal waves,which hinder the rapid discharge of urban pluvial floods when facing extreme meteorological events like heavy rainstorms,thus increasing the risk of urban pluvial flooding.As a result,research on urban pluvial flooding disasters has become an important focus in this area.This study utilizes Copula function to construct a joint probability distribution function of the maximum three-day rainfall in the study area and the average three-day maximum tidal level in the Yangtze River.The encounter probability of different combinations of rainfall and tidal waves is analyzed,and the joint risk probability and co-occurrence risk probability are obtained.The results show that the Copula function fits the joint probability distribution of rainfall and tidal waves well.The fitting results can not only provide theoretical support and scientific basis for solving the problem of the inadequate drainage routes for pluvial floods in Yihan during high water levels of the Yangtze River,but also serve as a reference for the flood control decision-making in other tidal river sections.

关 键 词：雨潮遭遇 边缘分布函数 COPULA函数 最大熵原理 风险率 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]