“22·06”广西暖区极端致洪暴雨成因与预报偏差分析  

Analysis on the cause and forecast deviation of extreme warm-region flood-causing rainstorm during“22·06”

作　　者：刘日胜 赵金彪 刘国忠 王盛繁 LIU Risheng;ZHAO Jinbiao;LIU Guozhong;WANG Shengfan(Guangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Nanning 530022,China;Guigang Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi Guigang 537110,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁530022 [2]广西壮族自治区气象防灾减灾技术中心,南宁530022 [3]贵港市气象局,广西贵港537110

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2024年第2期114-119,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2024GXNSFAA010352);中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSY011);中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-095)。

摘　　要：利用常规气象观测、多普勒天气雷达探测、卫星遥感及再分析等多源气象资料,通过统计及天气学诊断方法,对2022年6月17—21日广西暖区极端致洪暴雨过程成因与预报偏差进行分析。结果表明:(1)此次过程在高空槽、低涡切变、低空西南急流的共同影响下造成,以暖区对流性强降水为主。(2)强降水回波具有明显的后向传播特点,强回波带附近有偏北风和偏南风的辐合线,有利于对流系统的维持与发展,形成“列车效应”,造成局地极端强降水,桂北地形对强降水有增辐作用。(3)多个物理量的异常度分布对应着极端降水区域,其中K指数和整层可降水量与极端降水区域有较好的对应关系。(4)模式预报500 hPa高空槽强度偏弱、850 hPa急流位置偏差造成强降水落区位置偏西偏北、强度偏弱。Using conventional meteorological observation,Doppler weather radar detection,satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data and other multi-source meteorological data,the cause and forecast deviation of the extreme flood-causing rainstorm process in the warm region of Guangxi from June 17 to 21,2022 are analyzed by applying statistical and meteorological diagnosis methods.The results show that:(1)this process is caused by the combined influence of the upper-level trough,low vortex shear and low-level southwesterly jets,resulting in mainly warm-sector convective heavy precipitation.(2)The strong precipitation echoes have obvious characteristics of backward propagation,and there is a convergence line of northerly wind and southerly winds in the vicinity of the strong echo belt,which is conducive to the maintenance and development of convective system,forming a“train effect”,resulting in local extreme heavy precipitation.(3)The anomaly distribution of multiple physical quantities corresponds to the extreme precipitation region,among which the K index and the whole-layer precipitable amount have a good correspondence with the extreme precipitation region.(4)The weak intensity of the 500 hPa upper-air trough and the deviation of the location of the 850 hPa jet stream in the model prediction lead to the westward and northward location of the area of heavy precipitation with weak intensity.

关 键 词：暖区暴雨 极端降水 中小尺度 物理量异常度 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]