1600-1900年渭南地区洪涝灾害多尺度时序特征及对降水的响应  

Multi-scale characteristics of flood disasters and its response toprecipation in Weinan region from 1600 to 1900

作　　者：郁耀闯[1] 邓丽华 王长燕[1] 蒋文君 周飞 秦怡兰 任媛媛 YU Yao-chuang;DENG Li-hua;WANG Chang-yan;JIANG Wen-jun ZHOU Fei;QIN Yi-lan;REN Yuan-yuan(Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation,College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院/陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期76-81,共6页Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771048);陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(18JS005);陕西省社会科学界联合会项目(2019Z007;2020Z050);陕西省社科项目(2019E007;2020E007);宝鸡市科技局项目(2018JH-13)。

摘　　要：目的 研究1600-1900年渭南地区洪涝灾害的多尺度时序特征及其对降水的响应,为认识该区洪涝灾害的发生机制和历史时期气候变化规律提供理论依据。方法 基于《中国三千年气象记录总集》等历史文献资料,利用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和Morlet小波分析等方法。结果 1600-1900年渭南地区的洪涝灾害具有显著的准3 a和6 a的年际,准12 a, 15 a, 28 a和57 a的年代际和准125 a和208 a的百年际周期变化;厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡可能是导致该区洪涝灾害发生的主要原因;该区洪涝灾害在年际尺度上的方差贡献率(68.34%)大于在年代际和百年尺度上的方差贡献率(24.0%和2.92%),这可能暗含着该地区洪涝灾害的年际振荡信号强于年代际和百年尺度的振荡信号。结论 1600-1900年渭南地区的洪涝灾害存在年际、年代际和百年际尺度变化特征,并与毗邻地区华山和中北地区的降水有着较好的响应。Purposes—To study the multi-scale characteristics of flood disasters in Weinan region from 1600 to 1900 and their response to precipitation,and to provide a theoretical basis for understanding the occurrence mechanism of flood disasters and the law of climate change in historical periods in this region.Methods—Based on historical documents such as Collection of 3000 Meteorological Records of China,ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)and morlet wavelet analysis were used for above-mentioned purposes.Results—From 1600 to 1900,the flood disasters in Weinan region had significant inter-annual changes of quasi-3 a and 6 a,quasi-12 a,15 a,28 a and 57 a,and quasi-125 a and 208 a.El Ni o and Pacific decadal oscillations may be the main causes of flooding in the region.The variance contribution rate of flood disasters on the interannual scale(68.34%)was greater than that on the interdecadal and centennial scales(24.0%and 2.92%),which may imply that the interannual oscillation signal of flood disasters in this region is stronger than that of the interdecadal and centennial scale.Conclusions—The flood disaster in Weinan region from 1600 to 1900 has significant interannual,interdecadal and centennial oscillation,and had a good response to the precipitation in Huashan mountain and North-Central China.

关 键 词：渭南地区 洪涝灾害 气候变化 年际-百年际尺度 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]