国际粮价波动对我国粮食进口的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of International Grain Price Fluctuations on China's Grain Imports

作　　者：段宇卿 穆哈拜提·帕热提 Duan Yuqing;Muhabaiti Pareti(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第14期56-60,共5页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：近年来,全球气候持续变暖、极端天气等因素引发世界粮食市场波动并对我国粮食进口带来风险。本文选取我国2018—2023年相关数据,描述我国粮食进口规模、种类、进口来源国等粮食进口现状,通过理论分析与实证分析相结合,建立VAR模型探究全球粮价波动对我国粮食进口贸易的影响。结果显示,我国粮食进口量受到国际粮价的影响,并在短期内产生负向影响,国际粮价上涨1%,我国粮食进口量下降0.005%。为化解粮食进口风险,提高粮食安全的韧性,我国应铸牢粮食产能,提高粮食自给能力,同时深化和其他国家的粮食生产合作,优化粮食进口结构。In recent years,the ongoing global climate warming,coupled with extreme weather conditions,has caused fluctuations in the international food market,posing risks to China's grain imports.Based on relevant data from 2018 to 2023,this paper describes the current situation of China's grain imports in terms of import volume,type,and source countries.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,a VAR model is devised to explore the impact of global grain price fluctuations on China's grain import trade.The results show that China's grain imports are affected by international grain prices,exhibiting a short-term negative impact whereby a 1% increase in international grain prices results in a 0.005% reduction in China's grain imports.To mitigate grain import risks and improve the resilience of food security,China should firmly build its grain production capacity,improve grain self-sufficiency,deepen grain production cooperation with other countries,and optimize the grain import structure.

关 键 词：国际粮价 粮食进口 VAR模型 价格波动 粮食进口贸易 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]