Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China  

作　　者：Ying ZHANG Na MENG Keren ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics&Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China [2]School of Design,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hung Hom,Kowloon 999077,China

出　　处：《Asian Agricultural Research》2024年第7期1-11,共11页亚洲农业研究（英文）

基　　金：Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(72173011).

摘　　要：[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest res

关 键 词：Forest resources carbon stock Forest carbon sink Coupling coordination degree Forestry economic development Long-term trend 

分 类 号：S7-9[农业科学—林学]