基于实物期权的林业碳汇项目价值评估  

The Value Evaluation of Forestry Carbon Sinks Projects Based on Real Options

作　　者：徐玥 张绍文[1] XU Yue;ZHANG Shaowen(School of Economics&Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2024年第2期171-178,共8页Issues of Forestry Economics

摘　　要：应用实物期权理论,剖析林业碳汇项目的价值构成,构建以实物期权理论为基础的林业碳汇项目价值评估模型,以兴安盟阿尔山人工造林建设项目为研究对象,通过实证数值评估项目的实际价值,探讨木材价格、碳汇价格等影响因素的变化对项目价值的影响。结果表明:林业碳汇项目的价值涵盖了林木资产价值、碳汇资产价值和投入成本等多个方面,林木资产与碳汇资产的价值会随市场波动而变化,分别产生一定的期权价值,因此在进行林业碳汇项目的整体价值评估时,必须充分考虑两者各自的期权价值;木材价格和碳汇价格对项目价值有正面影响,而无风险利率对项目价值有负面影响。最后,结合碳汇交易政策和林业碳汇发展现状,提出鼓励林业碳汇发展和增强林业碳汇项目社会效益的政策建议。⑴Background——Forest management has become one of the important means to alleviate environmental problems because of its economic and ecological benefits.The commercial value of traditional forestry projects is limited,while the income from carbon sinks trading becomes the main growth point of forestry economic benefits.However,forestry carbon sinks projects have long operating cycle,strong policy and complex value evaluation.It is difficult to describe the value of forestry carbon sinks by traditional evaluation methods,but the real option theory is more suitable for evaluating the comprehensive value of forestry carbon sinks.Compared with the B-S model,the binary tree model is more consistent with the phased and periodic characteristics of forestry carbon sinks.⑵Methods——Based on the real optiontheory,this paper first analyzed the option characteristics of forestry carbon sinks project,revealed the value composition of forestry carbon sinks project,and established the value evaluation model of forestry carbon sinks project based on the binary tree model.Then,the carbon sinks afforestation project in Arshaan City of Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was selected as the research object to evaluate the practical value of the project.Finally,the sensitivity analysis was used to analyze the impact of timber price,carbon price and risk-free interest rate on the project value.⑶Results——First,forestry carbon sinks project has option characteristics,and the real option theory can evaluate the potential value brought by uncertainty.The value of forestry carbon sinks project consists of three parts:forest assets value,carbon sinks assets value and option strike price.The fluctuation of forest assets and carbon sinks assets will bring their respective option values.Second,the overall value of the project under different evaluation models is significantly different.In the NPV model,when the project is developed as a general afforestation project,the net income is-9.1021 million yuan,the uni

关 键 词：林业碳汇 价值评估 实物期权 二叉树模型 

分 类 号：F326.20[经济管理—产业经济]