东北地区森林旅游与养老产业耦合协调发展研究  

The Coupling and Coordinated Development of Forest Tourism Industry and Elderly Care Industry in Northeast China

作　　者：韩雪 耿玉德 丁郭明 曹文 HAN Xue;GENG Yude;DING Guoming;CAO Wen(College of Economics and Management,Suqian University,Suqian 223800,China;Office of Students Affairs,Suqian University,Suqian 223800,China;College of Management,Guangdong University of Science and Technology,Dongguan 523012,China;College of Agriculture,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)

机构地区：[1]宿迁学院经济管理学院,江苏宿迁223800 [2]宿迁学院学工处,江苏宿迁223800 [3]广东科技学院管理学院,广东东莞523012 [4]扬州大学农学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2024年第2期179-185,共7页Issues of Forestry Economics

摘　　要：运用综合指标评价法、耦合协调度模型分析2013—2022年东北地区森林旅游与养老产业之间的内在耦合关系演化及可能产生的原因。研究结果表明:东北地区森林旅游产业整体发展水平指数均值为0.4911,明显高于养老产业综合发展指数;东北地区森林旅游与养老产业耦合协调度整体偏低,两产业耦合协调度从濒临失调阶段转变为轻度失调阶段;省域范围内两产业耦合协调度存在明显的差异。因此,为提高森林旅游与养老产业发展水平,推进两产业向更高级别的产业系统协调发展,要转变发展理念,重视两产业的顶层设计与全局规划;以产业需求为引领,深化供给侧结构性改革;立足优势产业资源,推进产业优化协同并进。⑴Background——The forest tourism industry and the elderly care industry influence and support each other in terms of resource factors,industrial layout and policy linkage,which lays the foundation for the coupling and coordinated development of the two industries.In recent years,forest tourism has been vigorously developed in Northeast China,while population aging has been deepening.Exploring the coupling and coordination law between the forest tourism industry and the elderly care industry in Northeast China can provide theoretical reference and decision support for the coordinated development of the two industries.⑵Methods——The research data in this paper were mainly from“China Statistical Yearbook”,“China Civil Affairs Statistical Yearbook”,“China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook”,as well as the statistical communiques on the national economic and social development of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning provinces during 2013—2022.This paper firstly constructed an evaluation indicator system for the development level of the forest tourism industry and elderly care industry.Then,the entropy method was used to measure the weight of each indicator,and the linear weighting method was used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation values of the two industrial subsystems.Finally,the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate the degree of mutual influence of the two industries in Northeast China and determine the coupling and coordinated development status of the two subsystems.⑶Results——First,the average of the overall development index of the forest tourism industry in Northeast China is 0.4911,which is significantly higher than the comprehensive development index of the elderly care industry 0.3758.Second,on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of the forest tourism industry and elderly care industry in Northeast China is low,and the coupling coordination degree of the two industries has changed from the near imbalance stage to the mild imbalance stage.Thi

关 键 词：东北地区 森林旅游业 养老产业 耦合协调 资源禀赋 

分 类 号：F590.75[经济管理—旅游管理] C913.6[经济管理—产业经济]