全球木质林产品贸易网络的韧性研究  

Study on the Resilience of Global Trade Network of Wood Forest Products

作　　者：刘林 陈焱 俞君 孙莹 LIU Lin;CHEN Yan;YU Jun;SUN Ying(College of Economics and Management of China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018,China;Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry of Chinese Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 311400,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,杭州310018 [2]中国林业科学研究院亚热带林业研究所,杭州311400

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2024年第2期218-224,共7页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY222)。

摘　　要：以资源型和深加工型两类木质林产品的贸易网络为研究对象,从静态和动态两方面测度和比较网络韧性,并模拟随机攻击和刻意攻击对木质林产品贸易网络的影响。研究表明:木质林产品贸易网络韧性较为脆弱。与资源型木质林产品相比,深加工型木质林产品贸易网络不仅在连接性、传输性以及聚合性等方面呈现出更佳的性能,且在受到冲击后表现出更高的恢复效能和维持网络运作的能力。在所有的负面冲击中,贸易纷争和政治冲突等刻意攻击对木质林产品贸易的影响超过了自然灾害等随机因素。优化木质林产品贸易网络结构,推动木质林产品贸易网络韧性建设,保障网络安全高效运转才能保障全球木质林产品供需安全。⑴Background——In order to ensure the supplysafety of the wood forest products in China,it is necessary to study the resistance and resilience of the global trade network of wood forest products to cope with the impact.By comparing the resilience characteristics of the trade networks of resource-based wood forest products and deep-processed wood forest products,it is helpful to formulate targeted policies and risks coping strategies for wood forest products trade,so as to ensure the safety of China′s wood forest products supply and demand and the sustainable development of global wood forest products trade in the future.⑵Methods——This paper firstly analyzed the resilience of the trade network of wood forest products staticallyaccording to three indicators of network density,average clustering coefficients and average path length,and then analyzed the resilience of the trade network of wood forest products dynamically by using the interruption simulation technique.The resilience of the trade network of resource-based wood forest products and deep-processed wood forest products was compared from the static and dynamic aspects by using the data from the UNComtrade Database,and the changing characteristics under different attack conditions were obtained.Finally,this paper discussed the ability of two kinds of trade networks of wood forest products to withstand the shocks.⑶Results——The number of nodes in the trade of resource-based wood forest products and deep-processed wood forest products gradually increases.The density value of the global trade network of wood forest products is relatively low.However,the density values show a steady growth trend.From the perspective of aggregation,the degree of aggregation within the trade network of wood forest products is gradually increasing and tends towards collectivization,which helps to enhance the ability of wood forest products network to resist risks.Countries with rich trade links often also play an important role as the transit points for trade.Compa

关 键 词：木质林产品 贸易网络 韧性分析 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]