中国进口与进口来源国企业的就业规模变化  

China’s Imports and the Size of Employment in Firms in Import Source Countries

作　　者：魏浩[1] 李明珝 涂悦 Wei Hao;Li Mingxu;Tu Yue

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100875

出　　处：《学术研究》2024年第7期129-137,194,共10页Academic Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“积极扩大进口对加快构建新发展格局的影响与对策研究”(23ZDA050)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在国际上,各种版本“中国威胁论”的说法甚嚣尘上,中国作为进口大国为世界各国经济发展作出的贡献被严重忽略。为了探究中国进口对世界经济发展的影响,本文以1998—2018年全球制造业上市企业为样本,实证分析中国进口对进口来源国企业就业的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国进口对进口来源国制造业上市企业的就业增长具有显著的促进作用,这一促进作用在中国加入WTO后变得更大,且对高收入国家、OECD国家的影响更大。(2)产出规模效应和生产率效应是中国进口影响进口来源国企业就业的重要渠道,产出规模增长会导致企业就业规模显著增加,生产率提升则会导致企业就业规模显著减少,但总效应是正效应。进口来源国各行业的比较优势具有显著的调节作用,企业所在行业的比较优势越大,中国进口对其就业的促进作用就越大。(3)对比印度进口和中国进口的影响效应发现,只有中国进口会显著促进进口来源国企业就业规模的增长。本文证明了中国进口是促进世界经济发展的重要动力,也为驳斥“中国威胁论”、在国际上讲好中国故事提供了新素材和理论依据。In the international arena,the“China threat theory”is very popular,while China’s contribution as an importing country providing a huge market for countries around the world has been overlooked.In order to explore the impact of China’s imports on the development of the world economy,this paper studies the impact of China’s imports on the employment of enterprises in the import source countries,using the global manufacturing listed enterprises as a sample from 1998 to 2018.The findings show that(1)China’s imports significantly promote the employment growth of listed manufacturing enterprises in import source countries,with a larger promotion effect after China’s accession to the WTO,and China’s imports have a larger promotion effect on the employment growth of enterprises in high-income countries and OECD countries.(2)The output scale effect and productivity effect are two important channels through which China’s imports affect the employment of listed manufacturing enterprises in import source countries.The growth of enterprise output scale would lead to a significant increase in the scale of enterprise employment,while the improvement of enterprise productivity would lead to a significant reduction in the scale of enterprise employment.However,the total effect is positive.The comparative advantage of each industry in the country of origin of imports has a significant moderating effect,the greater the comparative advantage of the industry where the enterprise is located,the greater the role of China’s imports in the promotion of enterprise employment.(3)Considering both India’s imports and China’s imports,only China’s imports significantly promote the the employment scale of enterprises in the import source country,which further proves that China’s imports are an important driving force for the development of the world economy.This paper provides new material and theoretical basis for refuting the“China threat theory”and telling a good China story in the international arena.

关 键 词：中国进口 进口来源国 就业规模 产出规模 比较优势 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F113[经济管理—产业经济]