社保费征管与企业投资——基于社会保险法实施的准自然实验  

Social Insurance Collection and Enterprise Investment—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Social Insurance Law

作　　者：苏春红[1] 宋佳 李真[1] Su Chunhong;Song Jia;Li Zhen(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,P.R.China;Shandong State-owned Assets Investment Holding Co.LTD,Jinan 250100,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,济南250100 [2]山东省国有资产投资控股有限公司财务部,济南250100

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第4期58-70,共13页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“保障适度与可持续的多层次养老保险体系改革研究”(21BJY100);山东大学人文社科重大项目“积极应对老龄化战略的机制创新与对策研究”(21RWZD10)。

摘　　要：经济下行压力下,稳投资是关系国计民生的重大战略方向。以社会保险法实施为准自然实验,采用双重差分法探究社保费征管对企业投资的影响,研究发现:社保费征管加强显著提升了企业投资,该效应在超额雇佣、行业竞争激烈、外部社保压力大以及由税务部门征收社保费的企业更为明显。机制检验表明,社保费征管加强会通过“要素替代效应”促进企业投资,同时也会产生“现金流约束效应”抑制企业投资,而前者为核心作用机制。进一步研究显示,社会保险法实施后,企业会增加创新投入和债务融资,最终提高了企业绩效和企业价值。In the context of an economic downturn,maintaining investment levels is a crucial strategic objective for the national economy and the wellbeing of the population.This plays a pivotal role in ensuring economic stability and enhancing long-term competitiveness.This paper employs a quasinatural experiment,the implementation of the Social Insurance Law in 2011,to investigate the influence of social insurance fee collection and management on enterprise investment.The difference-indifferences model is utilized to examine the effect and mechanism of social insurance fee collection and management on enterprise investment.The findings are as follows:(1)The strengthening of the collection and management of social insurance fees has led to a notable improvement in the investment of enterprises.(2)Mechanism tests indicate that the strengthening of social insurance fee collection and management promotes enterprise investment through the“factor substitution effect”while simultaneously producing a“cash flow constraint effect”that inhibits investment,with the former being the core mechanism.(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that enterprises with excess employment,high industry competition intensity,high external social insurance pressure,and social insurance fees collected by tax authorities are more sensitive to changes in the intensity of social insurance fee collection and management.The positive impact of strengthening collection and management on investment is more significant for these enterprises.(4)Further research shows that after the implementation of the Social Insurance Law,enterprises increase their innovation investment and debt financing,ultimately improving their performance and value.The above research helps clarify the relationship between social insurance fee collection and stable investment,providing useful insights for improving the social insurance fee collection and management system and promoting enterprise investment.Specific policy suggestions are as follows:First,strengthen social insurance fe

关 键 词：社保费征管 企业投资 现金流约束效应 要素替代效应 

分 类 号：D922.182.3[政治法律—宪法学与行政法学] F842.61[政治法律—法学] F275[经济管理—保险]