全国0~9岁儿童手足口病年龄—时期—队列分析  

Age-period-cohort analysis of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in China

作　　者：刘天[1] 宋开发[1] 姚梦雷[1] 黄继贵[1] 赵婧[2] Liu Tian;Song Kaifa;Yao Menglei;Huang Jigui;Zhao Jing(Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou 434000,China;Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,434000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京102206

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2024年第3期182-186,共5页International Journal of Virology

基　　金：中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生应急反应机制的运行(102393220020010000017)。

摘　　要：目的利用年龄—时期—队列模型(age-period-cohort model,APC)综合分析2009—2019年全国0~9岁儿童手足口病的年龄、时期和出生队列特征。方法自公共卫生科学数据中心收集2009—2019年全国0~9岁儿童手足口病发病数及发病率资料,采用APC模型进行分析。平均年度变化百分比用于评价手足口病趋势变化;时期、队列效应计算相对危险度(RR),分别以2014年、2010年为参照。结果2009—2019年全国手足口病呈上升趋势,AAPC=3.28%,95%CI:1.27%~5.32%。不同年龄组AAPC与总体无明显差异(χ^(2)=2.17,P=0.995)。校正年龄、出生队列效应后,时期发病率呈偶数年高发,奇数年低发的特点,2014年发病率(1753.35/10万)最高。校正年龄、时期效应后,出生队列效应整体无统计学意义(χ^(2)=12.22,P=0.836)。但以2010年为参照,2012—2018年出生人群手足口病发病风险高(RR>1,P<0.05)。校正时期、出生队列效应后,年龄别发病率以1岁组(3341.28/10万)最高,1岁后,年龄每增加1岁,RR=0.59,95%CI:0.54~0.64。结论全国0~9岁儿童手足口病存在明显年龄、时期、出生队列特征,应以此为指导实施差异化防控措施。Objective To comprehensively analyze the age,period,and birth cohort characteristics of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)among children aged 0-9 years in China from 2009 to 2019 using the age-period-cohort(APC)model.Methods HFMD incidence among children aged 0-9 years from 2009 to 2019 was collected from the Public Health Science Data Center and analyzed using the APC model.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)was used to evaluate trends in HFMD.The relative risk(RR)of period and cohort effects was calculated with 2014 and 2010 as references.Results From 2009 to 2019,the incidence of HFMD in China showed an upward trend,with AAPC as 3.28%(95%CI:1.27%-5.32%).The differences between AAPC of age groups and the overall AAPC were not statistically significant(χ^(2)=2.17,P=0.995).After adjusting for age and cohort effects,the incidence rate of HFMD showed a pattern of higher incidence in even years and lower incidence in odd years,with the highest incidence rate(1753.35/100000)in 2014.The overall cohort effect was not statistically significant(χ^(2)=12.22,P=0.836)after adjusting for age and period effects.However the risk of HFMD was higher in the population born from 2012 to 2018(RR>1,P<0.05)using data in 2010 as reference.After adjusting for period and cohort effects,the incidence rate of HFMD in the 1-year-old group was the highest(3341.28/100000).After 1 year of birth,the RR decreased by 0.59(95%CI:0.54-0.64)for each additional year of age.Conclusions HFMD among children aged 0-9 in China shows distinct age,period,and cohort characteristics,which could be used to guide the implementation of differentiated prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：手足口病 中国 儿童 年龄—时期—队列模型 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]