面向碳中和目标的中国工业部门减排路径与战略选择  

Strategic measures and pathway towards China’s industrial carbon neutrality

作　　者：陈诗一[1,2] 王畅 郭越 CHEN Shi-yi;WANG Chang;GUO Yue(School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;International School of Finance,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natu-ral Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学国际金融学院,上海200433 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2024年第4期1-20,共20页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自科基金创新研究群体项目(72121002);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790058);耶鲁大学福克斯国际学者项目。

摘　　要：工业部门(包含电力工业)是中国碳排放量最多的国民经济部门.探寻工业部门合理有效的碳减排路径是中国碳达峰、碳中和目标顺利实现的关键.本文分解了中国2000年—2019年工业碳排放历史演变路径的驱动因素,预测了三种情景下2019年—2060年工业碳排放的潜在演变路径,估计了工业部门碳中和进程中所需的投资额,讨论了不同减排时点选择下投资需求的异质性.研究发现:1)规模效应和效率效应是历史演变路径中最关键的驱动因素,而化石能源清洁转化效应、化石能源内部结构效应和清洁能源替代效应的影响较小;2)非电力工业未来核心的碳减排技术路径为能源效率提升和清洁能源消费替代,电力工业未来核心的碳减排技术路径则为清洁能源发电替代;3)在当前的技术水平下,工业部门碳中和的进程中需要超过300万亿元的巨额投资,所需投资主要集中于高排放的非电力工业.本文最后提出了“以技术为核心,以市场为机制,以政策为引导”的中国工业部门实现碳中和的战略选择.The industrial sector(including electric power industry)is China’s largest source of carbon emis⁃sions.Exploring reasonable and effective pathways of industrial emission reduction for the industrial sector is the key for China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper decomposes the driving factors of the historical evolution path of China’s industrial carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019,predicts the potential evolution path of industrial carbon emissions from 2019 to 2060 under various scenarios,estimates the amount of investment required in the process of carbon neutrality,and discusses the heterogeneity of required invest⁃ment for different emissions abatement timing options.The research finds that:1)Scale effect and efficiency effect are the most critical driving factors in the historical evolution path,while the clean conversion of fossil energy,the internal structural change of fossil fuels,and the clean energy substitution have less influence;2)The core emission reduction technology paths of non⁃power industry in the future are energy efficiency improve⁃ment and clean energy consumption substitution,while the core emission reduction technology path for the e⁃lectric power industry is clean energy generation substitution;3)At the current technological level,the process of industrial carbon neutrality requires a huge investment of more than 300 trillion yuan,which is mainly concentrated in the carbon⁃intensive non⁃electric industry.At the end of this paper,a strategic choice of realizing China’s industrial carbon neutrality is put forward,which is“technology as the core,market as the mechanism,and policy as the guidance”.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 碳中和路径 指数分解 情景分析 边际减排成本 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]