基于Vine Copula的梯级水库短期发电调度风险估计  

Risk estimation of short-term power generation operation of cascade reservoirs based on Vine Copula

作　　者：李继清[1] 谢宇韬 孙凤玲 LI Jiqing;XIE Yutao;SUN Fengling(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Xiaowan Hydropower Plant of Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Dali 675702,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司小湾水电厂,云南大理675702

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第4期17-26,47,共11页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179014);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002702)。

摘　　要：基于能准确描述高维变量相关关系的Vine Copula,考虑短期径流预报误差的空间相关性,构建了梯级水库短期发电调度风险估计模型,并将模型应用于长江上游溪洛渡、向家坝和三峡水库,分析了径流预报误差带来的单一水库、梯级水库短期发电调度风险。结果表明:基于C-vine Copula构建的联合分布能较好地描述屏山站、朱沱站、寸滩站和武隆站的日径流预报误差特性;随着水库可调节安全区间范围增大,单一水库发电量不足风险率、弃水风险率均越来越小,梯级水库发电量不足、弃水联合风险率和同现风险率越来越小,即水库调节库容越大,其承担的风险也就越小。Based on Vine Copula,which can accurately describe the correlation between high-dimensional variables,and considering the spatial correlation of short-term runoff forecasting errors,a risk estimation model for short-term power generation scheduling of cascade reservoirs was constructed.The model was applied to the Xiluodu,Xiangjiaba,and Three Gorges reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,and the short-term power generation scheduling risks of single reservoirs and cascade reservoirs caused by runoff forecasting errors were analyzed.The results show that the joint distribution based on C-vine Copula can better describe the error characteristics of daily runoff forecasting at Pingshan Station,Zhutuo Station,Cuntan Station,and Wulong Station.As the adjustable safety range of the reservoir increases,the risk rates of insufficient power generation and water abandonment in a single reservoir decrease,and the risk rate of insufficient power generation,joint risk rate of water abandonment,and co-occurrence risk rate of cascade reservoirs decrease.That is to say,the larger the regulating capacity of the reservoir,the smaller the risk it bears.

关 键 词：发电调度风险 Vine Copula 梯级水库 短期径流预报误差 溪洛渡水库 向家坝水库 三峡水库 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]