基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝灾害动态风险评估  

Assessment on dynamic risk of urban flooding and waterlogging disaster based on multi-agent models

作　　者：卢兴超 徐宗学[1,2] 李永坤 胡小红 LU Xingchao;XU Zongxue;LI Yongkun;HU Xiaohong(College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Water Science&Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第4期36-47,共12页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239003)。

摘　　要：围绕城市洪涝灾害过程中对人口动态风险评估的需求,在城市水文水动力模型基础上,提出了基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝灾害动态风险评估方法,分别设置孕灾环境智能体、致灾因子智能体、承灾体智能体的运行规则,并给出多智能体之间的通信机制,以实现城市洪涝灾害过程人口动态风险定量评估。以北京市海淀区清河流域某典型排水分区为例,利用SWMM和LISFLOOD-FP模型,模拟50年一遇设计降雨情景下的洪涝灾害过程,并基于NetLogo模型构建城市洪涝灾害承灾体动态风险评估模型对研究区中的人口动态风险进行了评估。结果表明:50年一遇设计降雨情景下,研究区洪涝风险面积从降雨历时T=4 h的0.608 km^(2)增加到T=30h的2.202 km^(2);常规模拟情景下,研究区低风险人口数持续下降、高风险人口数持续上升,最终低风险人口数稳定占比为75.75%,高风险人口数稳定占比为22.85%;在设置救援避险策略后,研究区低风险人口数先下降后升高,在T=4.5 h时,最低人口数占比为92.30%,而高风险人口数先升高后降低,最高人口数占比为7.07%,最终低风险人口数稳定占比为100%。Based on the demand for population dynamic risk assessment during urban flood and waterlogging disasters,a multi-agent model based dynamic risk assessment method for urban flood and waterlogging disasters was proposed on the basis of urban hydrologic-hydrodynamic models.The operation rules of disaster-producing environment agent,disaster-causing agent and disaster-bearing agent were set,respectively,and the communication mechanism among multiple agents was proposed to achieve the quantitative assessment of population dynamic risk during urban flooding and waterlogging disaster.A typical drainage area of the Qinghe River Basin in Haidian District of Beijing City was selected as an example,SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models were used to simulate the flood disaster process under the scenario of design rainfall with the return period of 50 a,and based on NetLogo model,the risk assessment model of urban flood and waterlogging disaster victims was developed to assess the population dynamic risk in the study area.The results showed that under the scenario of design storm with the return period of 50 a,the flood and waterlogging risk area in the study area increased from 0.608 km^(2) with a rainfall duration of T=4 h to 2.202 km^(2) with T=30 h.Under conventional simulation scenarios,the low-risk population in the study area continues to decline while the high-risk population continues to rise.Ultimately,the stable proportion of low-risk population is 75.75%,while the stable proportion of high-risk population is 22.85%.With the implementation of the risk avoidance strategy,the number of low-risk population in the study area first decreased and then increased,with the smallest number of 92.30%at T=4.5 h while the number of high-risk population first increased and then decreased,with the highest number of 7.07%,and finally the stable number of low-risk population was 100%.

关 键 词：多智能体模型 城市洪涝灾害 人口动态风险 避险策略 水文水动力模型 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]