气候变化情景下桑螟在中国的潜在适生区分布预测  

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Diaphania pyloalis Walker in China under climate change scenarios

作　　者：杨淞杰 刘刚[2] 封传红 尹勇 万宣伍 张雪艳 李庆[4] YANG Songjie;LIU Gang;FENG Chuanhong;YIN Yong;WANG Xuanwu;ZHANG Xueyan;LI Qing(Plant Protection Station,Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Chengdu 610041,China;Sericultural Research Institute,Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanchong 637000,China;College of Plant Protection,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;College of Agronomy,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省农业农村厅植物保护站,成都610041 [2]四川省农业科学院蚕业研究所,南充637000 [3]南京农业大学植物保护学院,南京210095 [4]四川农业大学农学院,成都611130

出　　处：《植物保护》2024年第4期69-79,107,共12页Plant Protection

基　　金：四川省科技计划(2021YFYZ0024);国家现代农业产业技术体系四川蚕桑创新团队项目(SCCXTD-2024-17)。

摘　　要：桑螟Diaphania pyloalis Walker是桑树的最主要害虫之一,具有暴食性、繁殖能力强等特点,造成桑叶严重减产,同时也有传播蚕病风险,对蚕桑产业危害大。本研究采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,选择政府间气候变化专业委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)第五次评估报告发布的代表性浓度路径4.5(RCP4.5)情景,预测了桑螟在当前、2050年、2070年气候条件下适生分布区,分析了影响D.pyloalis分布的环境因子及质心迁移轨迹,为蚕桑产业发展规划提供理论依据。刀切法分析结果显示,年平均气温(bio1)、昼夜温差与年温差比值(bio3)、最暖季度平均温度(bio10)、年平均降水量(bio12)、温度季节性变化标准差(bio4)、最暖季度降水量(bio18)等6个环境因子是影响桑螟适生分布的主要环境因子。AUC(area under receiver operating characteristic curve)值评估结果显示,桑螟的AUC值为0.97,模拟预测结果为极好,满足精度要求。RCP 4.5情景下,桑螟高适生区主要集中在江苏、浙江、四川、重庆、福建、广东、湖南、湖北等地,未来气候因子将非常利于桑螟生存,自然条件下桑螟种群将呈增长趋势。桑螟质心变化不大,总体上北移,处于湖南长沙、常德和岳阳三地。Diaphania pyloalis Walker is one of the main pests of Morus alba,characterized by its voracious feeding habits and strong reproductive ability,causing a substantial reduction in mulberry leaf production by direct eating and spread of silkworm diseases,thus posing a great threat to the sericulture industry.This study predicted the suitable distribution areas of D.pyloalis in current climate and 2050 and 2070 climate conditions under the representative concentration pathway 4.5(RCP 4.5)scenario published in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5)using the MaxEnt model,examined key environmental factors affecting D.pyloalis distribution,and also analyzed the trajectory of centroid migration to provide a theoretical basis for the development planning of the sericulture industry.Analysis results using the Jackknife method revealed six environmental factors,including the annual mean temperature(bio1),isothermality(bio3),mean temperature of warmest quarter(bio10),annual precipitation(bio12),temperature seasonality(bio4),and precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18),as the main environmental factors affecting the adaptive distribution of D.pyloalis.Evaluation results based on the AUC(area under receiver operating characteristic curve)value indicated an AUC value of 0.97 for D.pyloalis,demonstrating excellent simulation prediction results meeting accuracy requirements.Under the RCP 4.5 scenario,highly suitable areas for D.pyloalis were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Sichuan,Chongqing,Fujian,Guangdong,Hunan,Hubei,and other regions.In the future,climate factors will be very favorable for the survival of D.pyloalis,showing a growing trend of population under natural conditions.The centroid of D.pyloalis is anticipated to exhibit minimal change and generally move northward,with locations such as Changsha,Changde,and Yueyang in Hunan being key areas.

关 键 词：气候变化 桑螟 MAXENT 中国适生区分布 

分 类 号：S888.722[农业科学—特种经济动物饲养]