我国绿氢供需格局变化及影响因素研究  

Research on the Supply and Demand Balance and Development of Green Hydrogen in China

作　　者：王敏 田日磊 王冠童 李云[3] 杜紫薇 王洪建 吴荣 Wang Min;Tian Lei;Wang Guantong;Li Yun;Du Ziwei;Wang Hongjian;Wu Rong

机构地区：[1]北京市煤气热力工程设计院有限公司,北京100032 [2]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京100038 [3]中国石化胜利油田新能源开发中心,山东东营257001

出　　处：《中国能源》2024年第5期66-78,共13页Energy of China

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技重大专项“中低压纯氢与掺氢燃气管道输送及其应用关键技术研发”(编号:2021ZD0038);江苏省重点研发计划“可再生氢能制/储/管道掺混一体化场站成套设计与运行控制关键技术研发”(编号:BE2022040)。

摘　　要：为研究我国绿氢未来供需态势,本文以总供给成本最小为原则,利用Python构建了绿氢供需平衡模型,进而开展了制氢资源评估和绿氢经济流向分析。研究表明,我国风、光、土地资源充足,依托区域调水系统,绿氢制取潜力大,且对用水紧张地区的工农业发展影响在可控范围内。绿氢主要供给地区包括内蒙古、青海、甘肃和宁夏回族自治区,经济流向从西北、东北地区流向华北、华中、华东、西南地区。建议在绿氢主要供给地区布局光伏、风电和制氢等基础设施,并根据绿氢经济流向,制定纯氢管道发展规划,布局绿氢相关产业。In order to support the healthy and balanced development of green hydrogen and to promote the planning and deployment of green hydrogen projects in China,this study constructed a green hydrogen supply and demand balance model using Python,with the principle of minimizing the total supply cost.Based on the results of the model,resource assessment and analysis of the economic flow of green hydrogen were conducted.The study indicates that China possesses abundant wind and solar resources as well as sufficient land resources,with Ningxia being the only region with water stress where wind and solar resources are favorable for large-scale hydrogen production.However,China's efficient water transfer system has prevented water scarcity from impacting local industrial and agricultural development.The main regions for green hydrogen supply include Inner Mongolia,Qinghai,Gansu,and Ningxia,with the economic flow moving from the northwest and northeast regions to the north,central,south,and southwest regions of China.It is recommended to layout photovoltaic,wind power,and hydrogen production infrastructure in these main supply areas of green hydrogen.Additionally,based on the economic flow of green hydrogen,it is suggested to formulate a pure hydrogen pipeline development plan and layout green hydrogen-related industries.

关 键 词：供需平衡 资源评估 绿氢经济流向 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]