碳中和目标下技术进步与长三角碳减排效率研究  

Research on technological progress and carbon emission reduction efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta under carbon neutrality targets

作　　者：王理想 王建民[1] WANG Lixiang;WANG Jianmin(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232000

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2024年第2期204-213,共10页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BJY116)。

摘　　要：关键碳减排技术进步在实现碳中和目标中是提高碳减排效率最为关键的影响因素,为深入开展碳中和目标下有关碳减排效率提升的技术进步理论研究与实践,本文将技术进步纳入可持续发展理论框架,建立长三角碳减排效率模拟分析动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,研讨持续投入下的技术进步对长三角碳减排效率动态演变的影响。研究发现:①增加技术投入资金能够有效提高长三角各阶段碳减排总量。既定情景下,长三角三省一市在2023—2060年间累计投入技术研发资金(以2023年为不变价)约8.2万亿元,能够实现长三角2060年CO_(2)减排增幅约1.11亿t。②持续投入下的技术进步对长三角GDP、单位GDP碳排放量以及碳减排效率动态演变的影响基本一致,尤其是前者随着资金的持续注入出现增强现象,且投入资金越多,递增发展态势越为强劲。③关键碳减排技术进步能够提高煤炭、石油等化石能源的结构占比,风电、水电等清洁能源结构占比在各政策情景中均出现下滑态势,且投入力度越大,下滑态势越明显。技术进步能够有效提升长三角碳减排效率,内生刺激区域经济正向增长,对实现经济与环境共赢至关重要。The key factor in improving carbon emission reduction efficiency towards achieving carbon neutrality goals is of technological progress.In order to conduct a theoretical and practical research on the improvement of carbon emission reduction efficiency under the carbon neutrality goals,this article incorporates technological progress into the framework of sustainable development theory and establishes a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for simulating and analyzing carbon emission reduction efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region.The research focuses on the impact of sustained investment in technological progress on the dynamic evolution of carbon emission reduction efficiency in the region.The study finds that:①Increasing investment in technology can effectively increase the total carbon emission reduction in different stages in the Yangtze River Delta.In the given scenario,the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta will invest approximately 8.2 trillion yuan in technology research and development from 2023 to 2060(based on the 2023 price level),which can achieve a CO_(2)emission reduction of approximately 111 million tons in the region by 2060;②Sustained investment in technological progress has a consistent impact on the dynamic evolution of GDP,carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP,and carbon emission reduction efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta.Especially,the former shows an increasing trend with the continuous injection of funds,the stronger investment,the more robust the incremental development trend;③Key technological progress in carbon emission reduction can improve the proportion of fossil energy such as coal and oil,while clean energy such as wind and hydro power shows a decreasing trend in all policy scenarios.The stronger the investment,the more significant the decreasing trend.Technological progress can effectively improve the carbon emission reduction efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta,stimulate endogenous regional economic growth,and is crucial fo

关 键 词：碳中和 技术进步 碳减排效率 动态可计算一般均衡 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]