京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染区域及人口暴露风险研究  

Study on the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and exposure risks of PM_(2.5)pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：宋俊 李春林[2] 胡远满[2] 刘淼[2] 黄泳波 SONG Jun;LI Chunlin;HU Yuanman;LIU Miao;HUANG Yongbo(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China;Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management,Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China;Piesat Information Technology Company Limited,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东济南250358 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所中国科学院森林生态与管理重点实验室,辽宁沈阳110016 [3]航天宏图信息技术股份有限公司,北京100195

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2024年第2期214-225,共12页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41871192,41730647);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助项目(2021194)。

摘　　要：为缓解京津冀地区面临的严峻PM_(2.5)污染,本研究利用公里级高分辨率PM_(2.5)数据集对京津冀地区的PM_(2.5)时空分布格局进行分析,利用超标频数法和人口相对暴露风险模型评估京津冀地区的区域暴露风险和人口暴露风险,并预测未来的人口暴露风险。结果表明,京津冀地区PM_(2.5)浓度在2001至2013年间呈波动上升趋势,在2014至2020年间呈显著下降趋势,到2020年时下降至38.43μg/m^(3)。京津冀的东南部地区PM_(2.5)浓度大于西北部地区。对于区域暴露风险,承德市和张家口市较低,邯郸市、衡水市、廊坊市、石家庄市和邢台市较高。对于人口暴露风险,承德市、张家口市和秦皇岛市较低,北京市、邯郸市、天津市、廊坊市、邢台市和石家庄市较高。综合来看承德市和张家口市的暴露风险最低,邯郸市、廊坊市、邢台市和石家庄市的暴露风险最高。京津冀地区在2030、2035、2060年的人口暴露风险较低(0级)。本研究将区域暴露风险和人口暴露风险结合,避免了单一评价指标带来的误差,对暴露风险得到了更准确的理解。To mitigate the severe PM_(2.5)pollution in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region,the kilometer-level high-resolution PM_(2.5)dataset is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of PM_(2.5)in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,with the frequency of exceedance method and population relative exposure risk model used to assess the regional exposure risk and population exposure risk in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region.This study also predicts the future population exposure risk.The results illustrate that the PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showes a fluctuating increasing trend between 2001 and 2013,and a significant decreasing trend between 2014 and 2020,decreasing to 38.43μg/m^(3)by 2020.The PM_(2.5)concentration in the southeastern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is larger than that in the northwestern part.For regional exposure risk,it is lower in Chengde and Zhangjiakou,and higher in Handan,Hengshui,Langfang,Shijiazhuang and Xingtai.For population exposure risk,it is lower in Chengde,Zhangjiakou and Qinhuangdao,and higher in Beijing,Handan,Tianjin,Langfang,Xingtai and Shijiazhuang.Overall,Chengde and Zhangjiakou have the lowest exposure risk,while Handan,Langfang,Xingtai and Shijiazhuang have the highest exposure risk.The population exposure risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region will be low(Level 0)in 2030,2035 and 2060.This study combines regional exposure risk and population exposure risk to avoid the errors caused by a single evaluation index and to obtain a more accurate understanding of exposure risk.

关 键 词：京津冀地区 PM_(2.5) 时空分布格局 区域暴露风险 人口暴露风险 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]