基于多智能体模型的柑桔木虱空间扩散研究  

Simulating spatial spread of Diaphorina citri based on a multi-agents modelling approach

作　　者：邓铁军[1] 张迈 申垚阳 刘丽辉 李运秋 叶新平 DENG Tiejun;ZHANG Mai;SHEN Yaoyang;LIU Lihui;LI Yunqiu;YE Xinping(Plant Protection Research Institute,Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Guangxi HLB Control Engineering Research Centre,Nanning,Guangxi,530007,China;College of Life Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,Shanxi,710062,China;Agricultural Science and Technology Information Research Institute,Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi,530007,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区农业科学院植物保护研究所/广西柑桔黄龙病防控工程技术研究中心,南宁530007 [2]陕西师范大学生命科学学院,西安710062 [3]广西壮族自治区农业科学院农业科技信息研究所,南宁530007

出　　处：《中国南方果树》2024年第4期10-17,24,共9页South China Fruits

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系广西柑桔创新团队“栽培与病虫害防治”岗位功能专家(nycytxgxcxtd-2021-05-02);广西柑桔黄龙病防控工程技术研究中心和广西蒙山沙糖桔试验站专家组组长项目(TS2022008)资助。

摘　　要：柑桔黄龙病是严重危害我国柑桔产业的细菌性病害,柑桔木虱是柑桔黄龙病的唯一自然传播媒介,了解柑桔木虱的发生和空间扩散规律对于有效控制柑桔黄龙病具有重要意义。以广西壮族自治区蒙山县为具体研究区域,借助NetLogo智能体建模平台构建了柑桔木虱空间扩散的模拟模型,模拟并评价了柑桔木虱的空间扩散规律及不同田间管理的效果。模型模拟结果表明,扩散距离以及农药喷施间隔时间均对柑桔木虱扩散速度和空间分布产生明显影响。无田间管理措施时,柑桔木虱扩散风险区总面积占柑桔园面积的比例呈现为持续且快速的上升趋势,长距离扩散(风速≥5 m/s)会导致风险区面积明显增加。当间隔1个月及以内施药(规范田间管理)时,柑桔木虱扩散风险能够得到迅速而有效的控制。验证结果显示,模型的平均TSS值达到0.82,模型仿真灵敏性为85.2%,模型特异性为80.9%,模型仿真结果总体准确率为83.3%,模型能够很好地模拟研究区内柑桔木虱的空间扩散。基于研究结果,建议柑桔种植区合理优化果园空间布局,如采用棋盘式分布,区域间设置防风林或防虫网等进行物理阻隔,田间严格遵循高效农药的使用规定进行柑桔木虱的有效防治,以有效减缓柑桔木虱扩散速度和空间范围,为柑桔黄龙病的区域防控提供有力支持。Citrus Huanglongbing(HLB)is one of the most harmful diseases of citrus industry in China,and Diaphorina citri is the only natural transmission agent of citrus HLB.Therefore,understanding the occurrence and spatial distribution regulation of D.citri is critical for the prevention and control of citrus HLB.A simulation model of spatial spread of D.citri was established based on the NetLogo platform,and the spatial spread regulation of D.citri and the efficiency of different field managements was evaluated in Mengshan County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.The results showed that both the dispersal distance of D.citri and the frequency of pesticide spraying would greatly affect the spread of D.citri.The ratio of the total area at risk of D.citri infestation to the citrus orchard area increased continuously and rapidly if without any control,and the situation would be worse by long-distance dispersal of D.citri(wind speed≥5 m/s).On the contrary,the spreading risk of D.citri could be rapidly and efficiently controlled under the scenario of monthly pesticide spraying.The model validation results showed that the average TSS value of this model reached 0.82,and the sensitivity,specificity,and overall accuracy of the model was 85.2%,80.9%,and 83.3%,respectively,indicating that the model is able to simulate the spatial spread of citrus psyllids in the study area with good performance.This study suggests rational optimization of spatial layout of orchard in citrus planting areas,such as adopting a chessboard distribution,setting up physical barriers such as windbreak forest or insect nets between regions,strictly following the regulations for the use of efficient pesticides in the field for effective control of citrus psyllids to efficiently slowdown the spread speed and spatial range of citrus psyllids,providing supports for the regional control of citrus Huanglongbing.

关 键 词：柑桔木虱 多智能体模型 空间生态学 NETLOGO 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] S436.66[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]